“Wide Open” Threes Is The Achilles Heel For Milwaukee Bucks’ Brook Lopez

The driving purpose behind every offensive scheme is—at its most basic level-to create the easiest shot possible. The easier the shot, the higher the chance it goes in, the more points your team scores, blah, blah, blah you know the rest. And, typically, unguarded looks are both the easiest and highest percentage shots out there. Unfortunately, Milwaukee Bucks’ center Brook Lopez has a “wide open” problem.

Jumping on the modern bandwagon in 2016-17, Lopez worked hard to transform his game and adapt with the times. After only attempting 31 combined threes during his first eight years, he suddenly took 387 in 2016-17; a metamorphosis rarely seen throughout the NBA’s history.

He’s continued not only jacking threes since, but also making them with good success. He’s made at least 34.5 percent of his shots behind the arc every season except for this year. Not bad for somebody who made the All-Star team because of his scoring prowess from the block.

The match appeared to be a perfect fit when Lopez signed with the Bucks in the summer of 2018. He was cast off by the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee needed a starting center.

They had just hired Mike Budenholzer with the hopes the new head coach could implement a modern scheme that would help the team reach the next level with their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In an attempt to maximize the team’s talent, Budenholzer designed a simple offense that spaces all five players around the arc (one in each corner, one on each wing and one at the top of the key). This allows them to take full advantage of the extra point you get for putting the ball in the hoop behind the line and maximizes the space the reigning MVP has to attack his man off the bounce.

You see, Antetokounmpo can’t be stopped by one man. It took, perhaps, the best defensive player in the world PLUS constant help from all four of his teammates to slow him down in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals.

Due to Antetokounmpo’s elite ability to get to the rim, teams load up on stopping him. They often ask help defenders to abandon their individual responsibilities and take part in building a wall between the Greek Freak and the basket. The most likely player responsible for helping to stop Antetokounmpo is Lopez’ man, as he’s typically the biggest dude the other team has.

At 21.3 “wide open” threes per game (meaning the nearest defender is six or more feet away), the Bucks generate more great looks than anybody in the league—nearly two more than the second-placed Houston Rockets.

Lopez is responsible for 3.5 of those attempts—only behind Antetokounmpo on his team. Regrettably, he only makes 29.2 percent—lower than any Bucks’ regular, and ranking 124th of the 126 players who have attempted at least 100 “wide open” shots from behind the arc this season.

The good news is this seems to be an anomaly. Before seeing his percentage bomb this year, he actually improved it the three previous seasons from 33.3 to 35.9 to 37.2 in 2018-19.

The biggest question is will he be able to get back to his 2018-19 form once play resumes or will he continue struggling? The answer could be the difference between a second-straight disappointing playoff run or an NBA championship.

As a team, their shooting woes proved to be their achilles heel in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals against the Toronto Raptors. And Lopez specifically experienced a slump very similar to 2019-20.

Toronto used Kawhi Leonard and his friends to stop Antetokounmpo from getting to the basket, and forcing him to use his teammates. The issue is nobody could make a shot, as the Bucks bricked one three after another on their way to shooting a disastrous 31 percent.

Lopez was second on the team in three-point attempts (32), but connected on just 31.3 percent. His primary defender, Marc Gasol, was a key cog in the Raptors’ defense that limited Antetokounmpo and was perfectly cool with Lopez continuing to fire away from downtown.

If he doesn’t get his shot together, a similar story could prevent Milwaukee from winning the NBA Championship once again this season.