Will Smith’s ‘Bad Boys 3’ Could Remain This Year’s Biggest-Grossing Movie

With Mulan and Tenet‘s commercial futures in doubt, we are running out of movies that could realistically challenge Bad Boys For Life for this year’s box office crown.

It’s bemusing that the only two outright global hits from this year, Bad Boys For Life ($420 million) and Sonic The Hedgehog ($308 million), outright bombed in China while the over-budgeted whiff (Dolittle) is clearing $18 million today. An over/under $245 million global cume wouldn’t be half-bad for a Robert Downey Jr.-led talking animal fantasy had it not cost $175 million to produce, but I digress. It’s not a massive surprise that the Will Smith/Martin Lawrence action comedy stiffed in China, as A) the franchise has never been a big deal in China and B) most of Will Smith’s defining hits never played (or made very little money) in China. Nonetheless, the R-rated, real-world, $90 million action-comedy remains the year’s biggest domestic and global grosser.

Moreover, it’s increasingly likely that Bad Boys for Life may keep its place in the record books for most of the year, especially in North America. Niki Caro’s Mulan won’t open at all in American theaters, opting instead for a “$30-a-pop” PVOD debut on Disney
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. Chris Nolan’s Tenet will open in much of the world on the week of August 26 before debuting in a “limited” capacity in America on September 2. We don’t yet know just how wide Warner Bros. plans to release the film in America, and it could just be every single U.S. theater where it’s allowed to play. Nonetheless, absent New York, California and a few other key U.S. states, well, even the $188 million cumes of Interstellar and Dunkirk could be a pipe dream.

Mulan and/or Tenet could both clear $420 million worldwide with little-to-no U.S. grosses. Tenet is expected to clear $100 million in China alone, which makes sense as Inception ($65 million in 2010) and Interstellar ($122 million in 2014, $140 million total) were more popular there than Chris Nolan’s Dark Knight movies ($1 million in 2005, not released in 2008 and $53 million in 2012). Both Inception and Interstellar cleared $500 million overseas, and even Dunkirk topped $337 million outside of North America in 2017. Sure, Tenet could play closer to San Andreas (the last non-Nolan original live-action blockbuster to get anywhere near $500 million global) and barely top $315 million overseas. Still, there are plenty of huge blockbusters that, in regular times, grossed well over $420 million outside of America.

Mulan is banking on the Disney+ release (which involves Disney keeping virtually 100% of the revenue) to compensate for a lost domestic theatrical release. The $200 million actioner is playing theatrically where able, including China. In a still-recovering marketplace, Mulan pulling Warcraft grosses ($220 million), let alone Furious 7 numbers ($392 million), seems less likely. That’s not even accounting for whether or not Chinese audiences, who usually have plenty of local biggies to choose from, even cared that much about a big-budget Mulan movie. Disney was hoping for a windfall from China, but it was expected to do well enough globally (it was tracking for an $80-$90 million domestic debut in March) that Kung Fu Panda 3/The Great Wall grosses ($155 million) would have been fine.

With Mulan earning essentially $0.00 in U.S. theatrical grosses, it’s also unlikely at this juncture that Tenet will clear the $204 million domestic cume of Bad Boys for Life. The Will Smith/Martin Lawrence actioner could spend at least the first eight months of the year as the top-grossing domestic film of 2020. It then becomes a question of whether Wonder Woman 1984 (October 2), Black Widow (November 6), Soul (November 20), No Time to Die (November 20) and Dune (December 18) still open theatrically this year. If they do, will audiences will show up in numbers anywhere near where they would have under normal circumstances? Any or all of those films topping $420 million global is more likely at the moment than crossing $204 million domestic.

In “normal” times, Black Widow would have opened in May to around $130 million and likely grossed (depending on legs) $305-$355 million domestic. Wonder Woman 1984 would surely have opened between $135 million and $165 million in June and, presuming it was halfway decent, legged out to anywhere from $330 million to $455 million. Ditto Pixar’s Soul, which (again, assuming it was closer in quality to Inside Out than, all due respect, The Good Dinosaur) likely would have opened with around $75-$95 million and legged out to at least $240 million. No Time to Die, however, was more of an open question, as only the last two James Bond movies, Skyfall ($304 million in 2012) and Spectre ($200 million in 2015), have cleared even $200 million domestic (sans inflation).

A better final product than Spectre (and less competition) along with the “Daniel Craig’s swan song” situation likely would have propelled No Time to Die to at least Fate of the Furious ($226 million)-level grosses, but that was no guarantee even in ideal circumstances. I suppose Denis Villeneuve’s Dune (no longer facing Top Gun: Maverick) could carry its weight as the year-end fantasy event and pull Hobbit grosses ($250-$300 million), but that’s less likely now than it was a year ago. Any of these movies could be delayed to 2021 or end up playing theatrically where it’s allowed and on PVOD or limited theatrical release in America. Or they could all open as currently scheduled and not gross as much, especially in America, as they would have sans a pandemic.

Tenet and Mulan are presumably off the table in America as potential domestic mega-hits. We now have just five upcoming 2020 releases, Wonder Woman 1984, Black Widow, Soul, No Time to Die and, fingers-crossed, Dune, that could gross even $200 million in North America. The New Mutants, The Kings Man, Death on the Nile, Candyman, Free Guy, Coming 2 America and West Side Story would (presuming they open as scheduled) be thrilled with $100 million domestic. F9, Minions 2, Jungle Cruise, Venom 2 and Top Gun 2 have all fled to 2021. There are just a few films left, give or take eventual releases for delayed Chinese blockbusters, that could challenge Bad Boys for Life for the global crown. There are even fewer that can plausibly out-gross it in North America.