World Is Set To Exhaust Carbon Budget In 10 Years

The world has 8% of carbon budget left, which will be exhausted in the coming decade at current emission rates, according to the Global Carbon Budget report 2020. Any rise beyond this budget would mean that average global temperatures would go over 1.5 deg C at the turn of the century which could lead to catastrophic changes. 

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This is the 15^th edition of the annual report of the international research project that began in 2006. 

In a positive update, researchers added that the growth in global carbon emissions has slowed down and attributed it to the spread of climate policy. As many as 24 countries saw their carbon emissions drop, even as their economies grew, in a decade prior to 2020.  

Covid-19 Impact: Reduced emissions in U.S., EU and India

Covid-19 restrictions led to a record decrease of 7% in emissions. This was most pronounced in the U.S. (-12%), EU (-11%) and India (-9%) due to Covid-19 restrictions. The decrease was least pronounced in China (-1.7%) where Covid-19 restrictions occurred early, and were limited in time.

The peak of decrease of emissions occurred in the first half of April, around the time of widespread lockdowns. It is not yet clear to what extent Covid-19 is set to influence long-term trends in global fossil emissions. 

“All elements are not yet in place for sustained decreases in global emission, and emissions are slowly edging back to 2019 levels,” said Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society research professor at School of Environmental Sciences of University of East Anglia, U.K. and a co-author. “Government actions to stimulate the economy at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic can also help lower emissions and tackle climate change.”

Carbon levels continue to rise, rate of growth slows down

Overall carbon emissions continued to rise in 2020 with another 34 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere. This amount was 7% or 2.4 billion tonnes less than the previous year.

Emissions reduction from the transport sector caused the largest drop. Surface transport, which contributes to 21% of global emissions, were cut up to half in countries at the peak of Covid-19 lockdowns. Emissions from global aviation too fell by 75% but as aviation accounts only for 2.8% of global emissions, this had a smaller effect on reduction in overall emissions. 

“The effects of the global Covid-19 pandemic on emissions have varied hugely around the world, but it’s clear that transport has been heavily hit everywhere that restrictions have been put in place to reduce infection rates,” said Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at CICERO in Norway, and also a member of the Global Carbon Project.

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50% emission cuts needed between 2020 & 2030

To ensure that the average global temperature does not rise beyond 1.5 deg C by the turn of this century, global carbon emissions will have to be cut by 25% to 50% between 2020 and 2030, predict various climate models.

Protecting biodiversity and stalling deforestation too will have a huge impact in combating climate change. Incentives that help accelerate deployment of electric cars and renewable energy are particularly timely, the researchers said.

Climate change is already altering water flow in various parts of the world, including the Himalayan region, and is disproportionately set to impact low-lying island nations and developing countries.

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