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IT IS no shock that many European countries are again facing rising coronavirus cases – this is exactly what researchers anticipated. Modelling in March by Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK, suggested that a two-month UK lockdown would lead to low cases and an imperceptible rise over the summer before new measures were required at the end of September. Which is roughly what happened. Other models foresaw similar patterns. “I’m not claiming a prediction, but it’s a scenario that was predictable,” says Woolhouse.
The speed and size of the wave …
