The key to carbon neutrality: Team proposes optimal utilization strategy for hydrogen energy in Korea

A joint research team has developed an energy system model optimized for Korea’s environment and proposed an optimal strategy for utilizing hydrogen energy.

Hydrogen is being highlighted as a key resource for achieving the government’s “2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario.” It is not only a clean energy source in itself but can also be produced using surplus power from renewable energy and converted back into electricity when needed, making it highly suitable for managing variability and operating the power grid.

However, until now, there have been few studies that quantitatively and in-depth analyze the role of hydrogen energy at a national energy system level. Research that takes into account Korea’s specific energy environment is especially lacking, highlighting the need for a scientific approach to support national policy.

The research team successfully developed the KIER-TIMES model, which reflects Korea’s energy environment, based on TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), an energy system analysis model by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Using this model, they predicted the optimal proportion of hydrogen energy needed to achieve national carbon neutrality by 2050.

The KIER-TIMES model incorporates Korea’s current energy supply and demand, future energy needs, power supply plans, and energy prices. It specifically includes various assumptions, such as the final energy demand for 2050, as outlined in the government’s “2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario Final Plan,” to ensure consistency with government policies. Additionally, sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess how changes in these assumptions affect the outcomes, thereby enhancing the model’s reliability and applicability even when government policy conditions change.

The findings from the model analysis indicated that in order to reach carbon neutrality at the national level by 2050, hydrogen energy needs to account for 27% of the overall energy supply. Furthermore, forecasts suggest that hydrogen energy’s contribution to overall energy use is expected to rise to 25%.

In addition, the research team used the developed model to conduct an in-depth analysis of the proposed import share of hydrogen, improvements in water electrolysis technology efficiency, and the use of carbon capture technologies as outlined in the scenario.

The scenario sets the import share of hydrogen between 80% and 82%, considering the potential of domestic renewable energy. However, the research team’s analysis indicates that at least 76% of hydrogen must be imported to achieve carbon neutrality, and a higher import share would increase the likelihood of achieving this goal.

The team also analyzed the reduction in power consumption achievable through improvements in water electrolysis technology efficiency. The national research and development target for water electrolysis efficiency is set at 94%. If this target is achieved, it is expected to reduce the country’s total power consumption by 6.4% and hydrogen consumption by 10.3%.

The research team also proposed a strategy for the use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology. Their analysis suggests that CCUS is more effective when applied to blue hydrogen production facilities rather than being installed at natural gas power plants. Increasing the production of blue hydrogen can help reduce the reliance on green hydrogen, which has higher production costs, making it a more cost-effective option.

Dr. Sang Yong Park, who led the joint research, stated, “This study is significant as it derives the role and optimal utilization strategy for hydrogen energy, taking into account Korea’s energy environment, using a methodology that aligns with international standards. We plan to expand the KIER-TIMES model to analyze the contributions of sector coupling technologies to carbon neutrality and to conduct research on their deployment and dissemination.”

Meanwhile, this research was conducted as part of the Sector Coupling & Integration (SCI) Convergence Research Group project, which was launched in July 2023 by the National Research Council of Science & Technology. The research findings were published on September 30 in Energy.

The team was led by Dr. Park from the National Climate Technology Center at the Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER) and Professor Dong Gu Choi from the Department of Industrial and Management Engineering at POSTECH,