Adrien Broner Vs. Jovanie Santiago: Odds, Records, Prediction

Adrien Broner wants another last chance. He’s had plenty of them—in the boxing ring and outside of it. Even though he hasn’t had a dominating, no-doubt-about-it victory since 2016, he’s somehow still getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to fight. Somehow, people still clamor to watch him. Perhaps a victory on Saturday against the undefeated Jovanie Santiago will give him the push he needs, after all. Here’s everything you need to know about Adrien Broner vs. Jovanie Santiago, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Through disappointing performances in the ring and a string of legal snafus outside of the ring, along with mental and alcohol issues, Broner has maintained his ability to be a viable ratings draw for Showtime. At some point, though, he needs a victory against a legit opponent.

Santiago could play that role for Broner. And Broner knows it.

“Santiago is hungry,” Broner said. “He’s still undefeated and he definitely doesn’t want to lose. It’s going to be a great fight. He’s definitely going to come to fight. Anybody that has a chance to fight an Adrien Broner to put their career up another step, they’re going to bring their A-game. … He’s a hell of a fighter. He’s got great skills. But I just think I’m on a different level.”

Plus, Broner said he’s more motivated than he’s been in the past. Though he was 35 pounds overweight before training, Broner said, “I’ve put in the work. After this fight I’m going to stay on track and get right back to the gym. … I was so out of shape. I had to be gritty and I had to dig deep. Being out that long, I was overweight. I had to wake up and run miles and work my body back. It was tough.”

Broner hasn’t won a fight since 2017, and in his last three fights, he’s 0-2-1. He hasn’t looked like a dominant fighter in five years. Maybe this time it’ll be difference. Maybe his last chance will pay off big for Broner.

“I just need to go back to the gym after the fight,” Broner said, “I’m trying to stay out of as much trouble as possible, stay out of jail and just work my ass off. I’m going to dedicate these last three to five years to straight boxing. I’m going to get as much as I can out of boxing and then retire and watch my kids grow up. I’ve matured a lot. I’ve been through a lot. It’s just time to get to business, make my money and do what I do best, and that’s box.”

For what it’s worth, the fight originally was scheduled for 140 pounds. But on Thursday night, Showtime announced it had been changed to a 147-pound bout “following a mutual decision from both fighters.” Also, Broner has lost two separate world titles in his career after missing weight on the scales. Both weighed in below the 147-pound limit on Friday.

Here’s more info on the Adrien Broner vs. Jovanie Santiago showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Showtime beginning at 9 p.m. ET.

Adrien Broner vs. Jovanie Santiago odds

As you might expect, Broner is a large betting favorite. At Sports Betting Dime, he’s -750, meaning you’d have to wager $750 to win $100, while Santiago is a +550 underdog (win $550 on a $100 bet). The over-under, via BetOnline.ag, is 10.5 rounds with the over at -120 and the under at -110. If it’s me, I’m going over, because, throughout his career, Broner hasn’t been great at 147 pounds—in his five fights at welterweight, Broner has never scored a stoppage.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only my opinion and not a recommendation), I might take the Broner-Santiago over of 10.5 rounds at -120, Miguel Berchelt winning by KO/TKO at -175 over Oscar Valdez (Saturday night on ESPN and ESPN+), and Otto Wallin beating Dominique Breazeale at -260 (Saturday night on Showtime). That parlay would pay out at about 3/1.

Adrien Broner vs. Jovanie Santiago records

The last time Broner (33-4-1, 24 KOs) really impressed in victory was in 2016 when he stopped Ashley Theophane. Since then, Broner, a former four-division world titlist, barely beat Adrian Granados by split decision, lost to Mikey Garcia, drew with Jessie Vargas, and got mostly dominated by Manny Pacquiao. Broner has some solid victories on his resume (Paulie Malignaggi in 2013, John Molina Jr. in 2015), but he’s never beaten the best of the best in his division.

Though Santiago is relatively unknown, his 14-0-1 (10 KOs) record looks solid. But he hasn’t beaten anybody of note. He is coming off a first-round knockout of the undefeated Juan Zegarra, and he has a victory over the badly faded DeMarcus “Chop Chop” Corley. But otherwise, Santiago has never faced anybody as good as Broner.

Adrien Broner vs. Jovanie Santiago prediction

If Broner can’t win here, it might be time to call it a career. All he needs here is a victory. He can struggle and not look good, and, in my mind, as long as he pulls out the victory after two years out of the ring, that’ll be a boost. I think it’ll happen. Say, Broner by unanimous decision.

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