Miguel Berchelt Vs. Oscar Valdez: Odds, Records, Prediction

Top Rank’s Bob Arum made a big statement this week when talking about the Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez showdown. “These guys are real warriors and to them, it’s almost an embarrassment to take a step backward,” Arum told Yahoo. “On paper, I cannot imagine this not being a Fight of the Year candidate. We’ll see how it plays out, but on paper, this fight is cannot miss.” Arum also compared the matchup to the Marco Antonio Barrera vs. Erik Morales fights, the gold standard of boxing trilogies. So, yeah, he thinks it’ll be a decent scrap. Here’s everything you need to know about Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Though Berchelt-Valdez on ESPN is going head to head with Adrien Broner’s return on Showtime on Saturday, it’ll be difficult to ignore the junior lightweight showdown. Berchelt is largely considered the best (and most exciting) at 130 pounds, and though Valdez is undefeated and a former featherweight titlist, he’s also a solid underdog.

Not that he’s worried about what the oddsmakers are saying.

“This is my opportunity,” Valdez said. “I’m not going to go in there and not give it my all. I’m going to do whatever it takes. If I have to box, I’ll box. If I have to bang it and brawl it out, then I’m willing to do that, too.”

Either way, though, he could be at a disadvantage against Berchelt, who has knocked out 16 of his last 17 opponents.

While Valdez has had a difficult time getting top-notch opponents in the ring with him, Berchelt has been one of the most heart-pumping fighters in the sport since he emerged in his tremendous knockout victory against Francisco Vargas in 2017.

Since then, Berchelt hasn’t looked back. He keeps knocking out his foes. But he also hasn’t faced anybody with the talent Valdez possesses in quite a while. And it’s a fight Berchelt has wanted since he watched Valdez box for Mexico in the 2008 Olympics, an opportunity that Berchelt had wanted for himself.

“This fight is the one that I dreamed of since we were both amateur fighters,” Berchelt said. “Valdez is a great fighter, and it will be a great fight. I am preparing with everything to win by knockout and leave no doubt that I am the best super featherweight in the world.”

Here’s more info on the Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN or ESPN+ beginning at 10 p.m. ET.

Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez odds

Miguel Berchelt is the sizeable betting favorite, and the odds keep getting wider. On Friday, Berchelt was a -450 favorite on Bet 365, meaning you’d have to wager $450 for a $100 payoff. Meanwhile, Valdez is +300, which means you’d earn $300 on a $100 bet.

Earlier in the week, Berchelt was -400, and when the fight was first made official, he was -250. Clearly, bettors are putting their money on Berchelt. If you’re looking for a little more value, you could go with Berchelt by KO/TKO at -175 or Berchelt by KO/TKO in rounds 9-12 at +350.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only my opinion and not a recommendation), I might take Berchelt by KO/TKO at -175, the Adrien Broner vs. Joviane Santiago over of 10.5 rounds at -120 (Saturday night on Showtime), and Otto Wallin beating Dominique Breazeale at -260 (Saturday night on Showtime). That parlay would pay out at about 3/1

Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez records

Berchelt has knocked off Vargas twice, Takashi Miura and Mickey Roman. All of them were fine fighters. But Valdez probably has more talent than all of them. So, even though Berchelt (37-1, 33 KOs) is the sizable favorite, Valdez is probably the best opponent he’s met in the ring.

When he was a featherweight titlist, Valdez (28-0, 22 KOs) tried landing fights against Leo Santa Cruz and Gary Russell Jr. For whatever reason, none of those opponents ever materialized. At this point, Valdez’s best victory came against Scott Quigg in 2018. But if he can upset Berchelt, there’s no doubt how special that win would be.

Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez prediction

I don’t think Valdez can knock out Berchelt. I think it’s possible he could outbox Berchelt for the first few rounds, but eventually, Berchelt is going to force a firefight. And that will be Valdez’s downfall. Valdez is a tough character, so he’ll last for most of the fight. But I think Berchelt will wear him down eventually and stop Valdez in the 11^th in what will be one of the best fights of the year.

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