Amid A Severe Recession, Trump’s Edge Over Biden On The Economy Has Evaporated

TOPLINE

Recent polls show President Trump’s edge over former Vice President Joe Biden on the economy, a critical metric for Republican candidates, has diminished precipitously in recent months as the coronavirus pandemic has tipped the U.S.economy into recession.

KEY FACTS

Key Background

The U.S. unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics rose to a record 14.7% in April, easing slightly to 13.3% in May, which is still the highest since the Great Depression.

Big Number

1-in-3. A Bankrate survey earlier this month found that 29% of Americans say their finances have worsened since Trump took office, while 17% of say they have improved and 45% say they’ve stayed the same.

Surprising Fact

Trump’s economic polling has fallen off since April even as Americans in a Gallup poll released earlier this month say their finances have improved. Some 53% of Americans in that poll said their financial situations are excellent or good, up from 49% in April. 

Key Quote

Biden’s polling has improved generally since April and the economic polling may simply be following that trend, but the longevity of the recession is likely having a greater impact on Trump’s polling than its early severity. John Leer, an economist for Morning Consult, explained to Forbes in April that “there’s a big difference between someone being out of work for a week or a couple weeks and someone being out of work for a couple of months.” That length of unemployment, he said, “can have a profound effect on the psyche of the American worker.”

Chief Critic

The new slate of polling comes as some pundits say Wall Street is raising alarm bells over a potential that Biden would open the floodgates for profit-dampening financial regulations if he wins the election. “Wall Street guys are getting very nervous of how [a Biden win] might impact the markets,” said Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino. He explained that while many hedge fund CEOs are Democrats, “the guys on the ground, the wealth advisors, are worried about their clients and how their clients’ portfolios are going to be affected.” But a recent Investor’s Business Daily poll suggests that retail investors themselves don’t share those fears; Trump leads by just 2 points among self-described investors with household ownership of at least $10,000 in equities or mutual funds, with 47% to Biden’s 45%.

News Peg

Republicans typically garner higher ratings on the economy than Democrats, based primarily on their promises to cut taxes and regulations to usher in unfettered growth. But that strength also turns into weakness for Republican presidents when faced with economic downturn. Before the pandemic, Trump had been basing his reelection argument in large part on the state of the economy. Now, he finds himself in a similar spot to George H.W. Bush, who lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 amid an unemployment rate of 7.5%–half of what it is today.