Biden Campaign Warns Donors Race ‘Far Closer’ Than Coverage Suggests

Topline

The Biden campaign is warning its supporters not to grow complacent about former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances against President Trump in the face of remarkably favorable polling, suggesting the race is “far closer” than media coverage indicates.

Key Facts

In a memo obtained by Forbes, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon tells supporters that while the Biden campaign is “confident our position is strong,” the race is “far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest.”

“In key battleground states, where this election will be decided, we remain neck and neck with Donald Trump,” O’Malley Dillon continues, citing polls of Arizona and North Carolina that show Biden up by 3 points, states she says the Biden campaign is “counting on to carry us to victory.”

Notably absent from the memo are mentions of the former “blue wall” states that carried Trump to victory: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Biden leads by more than 6 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

But O’Malley Dillon cautions in the memos polls can miss the mark – as they did in 2016, when some swing state polls predicting a Clinton victory were off by several points – and that turnout can be difficult to predict with data, meaning the campaign is “functionally tied” and should “campaign like we’re trailing.”

In another allusion to 2016, O’Malley Dillon raised the possibility of a late October surprise – similar to the infamous Comey memo – urging supporters not to underestimate Trump’s ability to “claw his way back into contention in the final days of a campaign.”

Forbes has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.

Crucial Quote

“I want everybody to just think back to 2016… and just think about that morning after the election and how we felt when we saw that Donald Trump won. Remember that feeling in your gut, how we felt, and everyone one of us said ‘could I have done a little bit more?’” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) told supporters at a Biden rally in Detroit, Michigan on Friday. “I want you to wake up tomorrow and have that feeling and say ‘oh my gosh, there’s still two and a half weeks. I can do more.”

Chief Critic

One person who doesn’t see the race as particularly close is Trump, who often claims massive leads in states where polls show him trailing Biden. “I think we’re winning in Florida, I think we’re winning in Pennsylvania, I think we’re winning in Ohio, big, I think we’re winning in Arizona,” Trump told radio host Michael Savage on Wednesday, adding “I just got some polls.” Trump also told reporters at the White House on Friday that “the polls are looking actually great” and predicted a “big victory” on election day.

Big Number

9 points.  That’s the size of Biden’s lead nationally in the RealClearPolitics average. He also leads by 6 points in Pennsylvania, 4 points in Arizona and 1 point in Florida, while trailing Trump by just half a point in Ohio.

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