Biden Holds Lead Over Trump, Polls Show, But There’s Signs Race Is Tightening

TOPLINE

Joe Biden holds a significant lead over President Trump on the first day of his party’s convention, polls show, though there are signs the race is tightening.

KEY FACTS

Surprising fact

Just 38% of Biden voters in the CNN poll said they’re voting “for Biden” while 67% of Trump supporters say they’re voting “for Trump.” A poll released last week found a whopping 56% of Biden voters in a Pew Research Center poll saying they’re voting for the candidate because he’s not Trump, for more than any other reason they gave for voting for the candidate. 

Key background

Polls have consistently shown Biden ahead by a wide margin nationally and with a strong lead in battleground states. A  NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last week showed Biden tied with Trump among white voters, 48%-48%. (Trump won white voters by 20 points in 2016.) There are indications that Biden’s lead is also stronger than Clinton’s was in 2016, before she lost to Trump in an upset. Even at Clinton’s polling peak — she had a 7.5 point lead over Trump on August 7 in FiveThirtyEight’s running tracker — her lead wasn’t as large as Biden’s is now. 

Further reading

CNN Poll: Biden and Trump matchup tightens as enthusiasm hits new high (CNN)

Post-ABC poll shows Biden, Harris hold double-digit lead over Trump, Pence (Washington Post)

Biden Eliminates Trump’s Advantage With White Voters To Take Double-Digit Lead, Poll Finds (Forbes)