Can Taylor Swift’s New Single ‘Cardigan’ Debut At No. 1 Next Week?

Taylor Swift shocked her massive fan base (and the rest of the world) last Thursday (July 23) when she revealed that not only had she already finished her new album, but that it would drop in just one day. Ever since Folklore was unleashed this past Friday (July 24), the 16-song set has been racking up an impressive number of streams and it’s been selling better than any release this year, so by now it’s all but assured the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200.

While the full-length is surely going to become a chart-topper, what about “Cardigan,” the lead single from Folklore, which arrived at the same time as all the other songs on the title? Can the focus track from the instant blockbuster become a No. 1 hit as it arrives on the Hot 100?

At present, there aren’t any indications regarding how many copies “Cardigan” has already sold, but it’s difficult to imagine any other song earning the status of being the bestselling track in the country when the charts refresh again. In fact, chances are Swift’s latest proper single will blast onto the Digital Song Sales ranking at No. 1 with one of the largest first frames of 2020, and all those sales (at least 50,000, but perhaps twice as many) will help it enjoy a lofty start on the Hot 100.

Also assisting “Cardigan” in its mission to launch as high as possible on the Hot 100 next week are particularly strong streaming figures. In its first several days of availability, the track has dominated Spotify, ruling as the No. 1 most-streamed track in America for three out of four frames (it came in second on the first day). It has already accrued at least 10 million plays on that one platform, while its music video has racked up nearly 30 million views (though that’s a global figure), and these numbers don’t take into account other sites like Apple Music, Tidal, Amazon
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Radio play also factors into where a song ranks on the Hot 100, and while it’s even harder to identify how many spins a certain cut has garnered in the past week, “Cardigan” is already off to a good start. Many singles, even from the biggest stars, usually need a frame or two to make it to any Billboard radio-focused list, but after just a few days of activity, Swift’s latest has already appeared on the Adult Pop Songs ranking at No. 26. That debut is a sign that programmers have been quick to pick up the soon-to-be-smash, and it looks like it’s on its way to becoming a radio favorite in no time.

To put some of these numbers into perspective, the current No. 1 song on the Hot 100, DaBaby and Roddy Ricch’s “Rockstar,” was streamed around 35 million times last week and it sold under 11,000 copies. It’s likely that “Cardigan” will sell five to 10 times as many copies, and it could approach that streaming sum. Swift’s new release might lag when it comes to radio attention (as is the norm with brand new efforts), but if total sales and streams are high enough, they can counter a lack of spins on popular stations.

At the moment, it looks like “Cardigan” is still facing an uphill battle when it comes to unseating “Rockstar” on the Hot 100’s throne, but such a start is not completely out of reach. If the song doesn’t make it to the top spot immediately, it is bound for a top 10 launch, and it will almost surely kick off its time on the list inside the top five.