Communication Needs To Be The Key Ingredient For 2020 NBA Free Agency

Due to the Coronavirus pandemic, NBA teams will enter the 2020 off-season, whenever that happens, with much financial uncertainty given the severe economic losses of the 2019/2020 season.

Instead of rehashing the potential consequences, allow me to link to fellow Forbes Contributor, Bryan Toporek, who has been all over this.

Seriously. All. Over. This.

In short: Nobody knows anything and the salary cap will likely be set by inserting an arbitrary cap number instead of the usual calculations off the league’s BRI. It’s all up in the air.

The NBA will of course inform teams which numbers they have to work with this off-season, but those numbers are currently all over the place, which has made it difficult for teams to plan ahead, hence the arbitrary number to at least give teams a fair shake at something that resembles year-to-year consistency.

Ultimately, 30 teams will be left playing some sort of catch-up while making moves on the fly, having not had the necessary time to simulate situations with a certain cap figure.

No executive likes to gamble on the future, and due to the unstable foundation of the salary cap moving forward, it would appear unlikely that teams are looking to invest big this summer, as a costly move could turn even more costly a year from now, if the NBA’s revenue declines yet again.

Fortunately for teams, 2020 free agency was never viewed as an attractive market in the first place. Anthony Davis, the crown jewel of the off-season, is widely expected to return to the Los Angeles Lakers either via a new contract or by opting into his final year of his deal.

Davis also represents on-court value so instrumental to team success, even in a year of uncertainty as this one, he would always get maxed out, regardless. Davis is one of just a handful of max-contract players around the league who consistently play beyond their salary, so the risk of investing big in the seven-time All-Star is virtually non-existent.

That leads us into the second tier of players, headlined by Andre Drummond and DeMar DeRozan. Both players have player options north of $27 million and the market for them is far from hot. The Atlanta Hawks, who previously had interest in Drummond, traded for Clint Capela at the trade deadline, which has resulted in the market getting narrower for the Cavaliers center. At this stage, it would appear likely he picks up his option and enters free agency in 2021 instead.

DeRozan is going to turn 31 this year and remains a notorious non-shooter, having connected on just 15 three-pointers during his two-year stint with the San Antonio Spurs. There simply isn’t many teams out there willing to invest much in that archetype of a player, especially when you factor in age. He, too, appear likely to pick up his option.

For many veteran players, money isn’t widely available generally.

The vast majority of teams with substantial cap space, such as Atlanta, Detroit and Charlotte, are re-building and would presumably prefer to go after younger players with upside and build from within.

That means teams will have significant leverage against veterans this year. The Clippers, who will need to take care of Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris, could squeeze the lemon a fair bit, as it appears unlikely big offers will come their way.

The question for the Clippers, and teams in a similar position of having to re-sign key players, now becomes how hard that lemon can get squeezed before things get too sour?

Just as the Clippers wouldn’t wish to overpay Harrell for his services in fear of potentially messing up their cap sheet a few years from now, they also wouldn’t risk alienating him by forcing him into a corner. Nothing good ever comes from that.

This will be a high-stakes balancing act of figuring out a way to get Harrell back at a price that doesn’t ruin their cap sheet, while maintaining their relationship with him. As an unrestricted free agent, Harrell could leave the Clippers and sign elsewhere for less out of spite, which would be a catastrophic off-season for one of the league’s best teams.

That line of thinking needs to be adapted league-wide for teams and players to avoid bitter feelings. Thankfully, it’s worth mentioning that players are keenly aware of what’s happening these days and it’s fair to presume they will enter negotiations with an openness to numerous ideas, such as shortened balloon deals or contracts with significant incentives.

The NBA and NBPA also appear to be on solid ground with each other, and it’s fair to assume that relationship will carry over between teams and their players. These are unprecedented circumstances after all.

Ultimately, players have to understand the hesitance from teams in making long-term investments, just as teams have to understand that this isn’t the time to pummel players financially just because they can.

If both sides sit down with that understanding, it could allow free agency to become a smooth ride for most.