‘Conjuring,’ ‘Candyman’ And ‘Halloween’ Could Be Test Cases For Post-Coronavirus Box Office

Universal
UHS
and MGM’s Candyman sequel just moved from June 12 to September 25. Directed by Nia DaCosta (fun fact: Little Woods is awesome and is currently available on Hulu) and produced by Jordan Peele, the (seemingly) “legeacy-sequel” to the 1992 chiller (itself based on a Clive Barker short story) will now open in the same month as Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II (September 4) and (presuming it stays put) New Line and Warner Bros
BWA
.’ The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It (September 11). Universal is still intending to release Halloween Kills on October 16. Is there a chance that Lionsgate’s Spiral: From the Book of Saw ends up back at its intended October 23 release date after being moved to (and then delayed from) May 15? Maybe, and it would probably be a good idea.

First, while I totally understand why the Chris Rock-produced and Darren Lynn Bousman-directed Saw movie (which, like Candyman, seems to be an in-continuity “spiritual sequel” to the previous Saw films) fled to May 15 from its initial Halloween release date. First, Blumhouse’s Halloween (itself a legacy sequel) earned $159 million domestic (and $256 million worldwide) from a $77 million opening in mid-October of 2018, and it stood to reason that Halloween Kills would be a pretty big deal this October. Second, Lionsgate scored huge with John Wick: Chapter 3 in the key pre-Memorial Day weekend frame, earning $171 million domestic and $322 million worldwide from a $56 million debut. Now Saw isn’t John Wick, but A) John Wick wasn’t *John Wick* at first and B) I’m guessing Spiral cost a heck of a lot less than Parabellum’s $75 million budget.

Nonetheless, presuming Spiral, starring Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson, is closer in quality to Saw II than Saw VII, there’s a case to be made for the familiarity and comfort of having a new Saw movie actually opening around Halloween. Moreover, Halloween was quite frontloaded (2.06x its admittedly huge opening weekend), and it’s entirely possible that the next chapter could take a big downturn due to “We were only curious the last time” moviegoers. That’s to be expected, and I’m sure Universal and Blumhouse budgeted accordingly. Point being, there’s a case to be made that there’s room this October for both Halloween Kills and Spiral: From the Book of Saw. And if this comes to pass, with or without Spiral showing up in late October, the first two months of Fall are going to be jam-packed with big horror movies.

Yes, I’d love to be as optimistic as Disney and Warner Bros., with the presumption that theaters will be back in business in time for moviegoers to welcome Chris Nolan’s Tenet (July 17) and Niki Caro’s Mulan (July 24) with open arms. But presuming that doesn’t happen, and this does last the duration of the summer, it makes sense for horror movies, even bigger, franchise-specific horror movies, to act as a the proverbial canaries in the coal mine as theaters re-open after months of coronavirus-related closures. Can A Quiet Place Part II open as well over Labor Day as it would otherwise have opened (around $60 million) had it debut in mid-March as planned? Will Candyman break out in late September to the same level it might have in mid-June? Ditto Conjuring 3, Halloween 3 version 2 and (possibly) Spiral.

Horror movies are comparatively cheap, especially compared to tentpole flicks like Mulan and Wonder Woman 1984. Nonetheless, horror movies will still theoretically bring it large quantities of theatrical moviegoers, even sans any IP. Most of the biggest original releases over the last few years (Get Out, A Quiet Place, Us, etc.) have been horror flicks. And after months of pandemic-related fears, audiences may want to, presuming it’s safe, race into a multiplex to take in some comparatively fantastical horror stories. And if they don’t, well, all due respect, better to sacrifice A Quiet Place Part II and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It than Top Gun: Maverick or Wonder Woman 1984. Conversely, if Halloween Kills and Candyman open to comparatively healthy numbers, then the likes of Black Widow and No Time to Die can breathe a sigh of relief.

If things get better to the point where Tenet, Mulan or even Wonder Woman 1984 perform at levels relative to pre-coronavirus expectations, then this may be a moot point. But if domestic theaters have only opened by Labor Day, then A Quiet Place part II, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and Candyman will make for either affirmative success stories or sacrificial lambs. They are, by virtue of their continued popularity, their potential for increased appeal as a kind of shared visceral coping mechanism, their comparatively lower budgets and their lack of dependency on overseas box office, ideal candidates to test the waters of a post-coronavirus theatrical marketplace. We’ll see if it’s the superheroes of July and August or the super villains of September and October who end up offering hope to an industry on the cusp of doom.