Coronavirus Will Destroy The Box Office Whether Studios Like It Or Not

First it was No Time to Die being delayed until November. Then it was Peter Rabbit 2. Then A Quiet Place Part II. Then, just in the past 48 hours, came the big one-two punch: what could end up being the year’s two highest-grossing films, F9 and Mulan, delayed their theater releases (F9 pushed back its premiere by almost one full year). All of these movies have sacrificed sizable box office income in the wake of the coronavirus.

There’s no denying that Hollywood as a whole will have to, sooner or later, reckon with the impending spread of the coronavirus. All of the movies that have delayed so far had to make that decision—a tough decision, for sure, but ultimately the right decision. The virus is most susceptible to spreading when people gather in large quantities. Which is why you’ve seen the cancellation of sporting events, music festivals, conferences, etc.

So, naturally, a movie screening—which can house hundreds of patrons at a time—is a seemingly easy cancellation. Right?

Yet…that hasn’t been the case for every major film. Especially for the three major releases hitting the box office this weekend. Bloodshot will play in 2,800 locations; I Still Believe will play 2,600 venues; The Hunt will make it’s long-awaited debut in 2,200 theaters. While many studios have recognized the need and obligation to delay their films, many others have carried forward.

On the one hand, you can understand why. Analysts have predicted that the global film industry will face a $5 billion loss (according to The Hollywood Reporter) due to a giant drop in box office income and the restrictions that have been placed on production. And that number will only continue to escalate as more countries tackle coronavirus and more studios delays their films.

But trying to capture the box office at a time when other movies are fleeing theaters seems like a really bad idea for two reasons. First of all, with so many other movies pushing back their release dates, how does it make movies like Bloodshot and I Still Believe and The Hunt look to the public? It’s not as if people will be rooting for major multi-million dollar productions to weather the storm and make their money back—people are too busy trying to avoid the coronavirus.

Which triggers the second—and most important reason—movie theaters should close up shop: people are much more concerned about their own personal safety than going to see the newest films. All of these major event cancellations? All of these postponed flights? Those were personal sacrifices people had to make. Businesses and organizations have chosen to skip the norm for one year, and people have chosen to self-quarantine themselves in order to protect their health and their families’ health.

What’s important to remember here is the entire incredibly simple point of a quarantine in the first place: to prevent us all from getting sick. A quarantine is designed to slow the spread of the virus enough to prevent overloading the healthcare system. Currently, epidemiologists believe we can expect about 40-70% of the global population—which, on the low end, would be 130 million people in the United States—to be infected by the coronavirus within the next year. And of that total, about 10-15% of people infected—which, in America, ranges between 13 million and 20 million—will need one of the 924,000 hospital beds available in this country. Obviously this, as you can tell by the numbers, will inevitably be a huge problem in the near future.

Which is why we need to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Which means not going to the movies—and, more importantly, means not releasing movies for people to go to. What’s the point in releasing a movie when (according to CNBC) more than one third of adults in the U.S. believe movie theaters should close their doors during the coronavirus outbreak? And what’s the point in releasing a movie when huge chains like AMC are limiting theater capacity to 50%?

The answer is pretty simple: there isn’t. Studios have chosen to not delay their movies out of financial fear. But, as that $5 billion loss reported by The Hollywood Reporter shows, the economic fallout is inevitable. Slowly people are becoming more and more informed about coronavirus and have begun to understand the importance of staying home. With Americans choosing to stay home from work and cancel flights and stock up on food, they’re clearly signaling that movie screenings are the last things on their minds.

So if there’s going to be any real shift in what film studios do moving forward, this weekend will likely trigger it. If all three of the weekend’s major wide releases—Bloodshot, I Still Believe and The Hunt—tank and lose millions, then the entire movie industry will have to think twice about taking a chance at the box office.