How To Defeat The Seven Deadly Decision Biases

Our brains come with seven powerful biases that distort our decision making like funhouse mirrors. Three derail us before we decide, three gum up the works afterward and the last is the worst of all.

Here’s a brain owner’s guide to these biases, how they work and what you can do about them.

Before We Decide

You’re facing a big decision. Stakeholder meetings are in place. Spreadsheets and presentations are in progress. And your brain is hard at work getting in the way of making the best decision because, unfortunately, it’s hard-wired to survive in a dangerous hunter-gatherer world long before the written word existed, let alone Zoom happy hours.

1) Loss Aversion

We are naturally and irrationally risk-averse. Even when we don’t feel particularly afraid of a bad outcome, our brains still silently tip the scale in favor of choices that preserve what we have today over pursuing a better result in the future. The impact can be huge. Clever behavioral scientists have calculated that this effect can cause us to act as if the potential loss is 2X larger than it really is.

That sort of bias made sense when an infected cut from a failed hunting expedition had a good chance of killing you. But your worried brain isn’t doing you any favors in the modern workplace, where taking a smart risk is unlikely to get you fired, let alone kill you.

2) Planning Fallacy

We are naturally and irrationally optimistic about how long it takes to get things done. Even when we have a lot of experience with a particular project, we still think that this time, maybe, we’ll get it done faster than any team ever before. Scientists have calculated that projects tend to take about 2X longer than our initial estimates.

Again, that bias made sense when hunting on the savannah. Besides being smart, humans have more stamina than any land animal on earth, especially in the heat of the day. So if our brains just kept us going by tricking us that that fruit or that antelope was almost within reach, eventually we got to eat. But if our six-month business projects keep stretching out for a year, we may find ourselves earning our bread somewhere else.

3) Magic Bullet Bias

We are naturally and irrationally sure of our decisions. We believe in magic bullets. The problem is that our brains don’t bother to make us aware we are facing a decision until a choice presents itself, and that becomes our default position. That’s why most of the time, we only seriously consider a single choice. When Alice wondered, “Should I drink the potion?” it’s no wonder she took a drink and ended up in Wonderland…her default choice was right there in front of her. 

But worse for us, decisions at work involve other people. That means more brains are involved, and their biases amplify the power of the magic bullet bias. As soon as we start exploring and explaining our decisions, sneaky confirmation and availability biases rise up to support the most salient choice and filter out conflicting facts. Then groupthink kicks in, and eager for consensus, we happily agree with whoever told the best story first.

Imagine living and working 24×7 with the same 50 to 100 people for your entire life, in a distant past where things rarely changed, and your whole family’s life and happiness depended on everyone getting along. Our brains are still stuck there, pushing us to get along as if our lives depend on it. But when making business decisions in a rapidly-changing world that floods us with information, constructive dissent is a virtue, and we need every voice to be heard.

After We Decide

You’ve decided. After weeks of discussion and analysis, the choice is clear. With relief and confidence, you look around the table, ready to move forward. Laptops close, chairs roll, and people head out the door. Your brain locks the decision down and erases its tracks, which feels clarifying but often gets in the way of our success.

4) Decision Blinders

We are strangely committed to our decisions after we make them. My past research found that we are 4X more likely to follow through on our plans when we make a big decision than when we set a future goal with similar stakes. Although most of us are aware of the sunk cost fallacy, we often keep going with failing projects because we’ve invested so much in them already. Like the lazy fox in the fable of the sour grapes, we are perfectly comfortable declaring a valuable outcome to be undesirable because we believe it is beyond our reach. In reality, the best time to change a decision is the next day before we make any commitments, yet going back on a decision feels like a sign of weakness.

That is the nature of decisions. The word itself derives from the Latin ‘to cut off.’ Making a decision is a negative act. It feels like we are deciding for something, but our brain acts like we are deciding against other choices. It creates a world in which those other choices are less visible to us, keeping us committed to our decision, and blind to alternatives.

Since our brains struggle to perceive negative space, it’s difficult to see the implications of this aspect of decision making. This classic image provides a useful analogy — we can either see the vase or the faces, but we can’t see both shapes at the same time.

When we “decide” to see the vase, our brain puts blinders on us, and from that point forward, we can’t see the faces without an extra effort. Since blinders are invisible to us, we tend to stick with our first decision longer than we should.

5) The Narnia Syndrome

We strangely leave other people behind when we make decisions. Like walking through the magical wardrobe to Narnia, the people with us when we make a decision step through a door together into a world of new possibilities. We have a shared sense of clarity. We’re motivated to get to work. And we have a tough time seeing the boring old world as it was before we made the decision.

Yet other people who weren’t in the room are stuck in that old world and still need to learn about the decision. Unfortunately, we often do a poor job telling them. It feels tedious to explain something that feels so obvious. We don’t have much patience if they don’t see things the same way we do. We have a hard time stepping back to bring them through the door and into the new world, too. As a result, the details of decisions tend to diffuse piecemeal through word of mouth, and people feel left out.

6) Decision Amnesia

We strangely forget the details of our decisions after time passes. What exactly did we decide? Why did we make that decision? All of us have felt the slippery nature of past decisions, how difficult it is to remember the specifics, and how easily other people misremember.

In general, we tend to remember the gist of what people say rather than the exact words, a bias known as the “verbatim effect.” This bias gets worse when it comes to decisions because it’s hard to look around for details to jog our memory when our brains are so busy strapping on blinders and stepping through doors. In the act of deciding, the details stand out in sharp relief, and it feels impossible that we’ll forget. After we decide, we hardly notice as the details fade away.

Worst Of All

How can those biases be so wide-spread, and yet we still fall into their traps? Because one bias binds them all together.

7) The Bias Blind Spot

We can see other people’s biases but not our own. These biases are all unconscious biases, which, by definition, means we aren’t aware when they are happening to us. However, it’s usually apparent when other people fall into the traps. For example, just think of a politician you dislike, and you’ll quickly see their biases in action.

The blind-spot bias is the worst bias of all because it blunts our motivation to address our own biases. We will never feel like we are biased. Our optimistic plans will always sound realistic to us. Our risks of making mistakes will seem more prominent to us. The first choice that comes to mind will keep feeling like the best one.

So What Can We Do?

Luckily, there are a few simple steps you can take that work wonders at correcting most of our decision-making biases. They are proven to work. They are easy to do. And they all depend on writing since putting thoughts down in writing helps to break out of unconscious patterns and create a shared understanding between people.

Here’s what to do, using simple rules of three.

Before Deciding

1. Write down at least three more alternatives beyond your top choice. This brainstorming will help you and others to break free of your bias blinders.
2. Before meeting in person with stakeholders, ask them to independently write down three sentences about what they think of the decision. This will make sure everyone’s voice is heard and help open up more perspectives.
3. When you feel close to deciding, write three sentences about what could go right and what could go wrong if you make this decision. That will help pressure-test your choice.

After Deciding

1. Announce the decision in writing, including what you decided and why listing at least 3 of the alternatives you considered and the names of at least 3 of the other people involved. This will help other people step into your shoes and build buy-in for the decision.
2. Write down three sentences about the expected results of the decision. This fights decision amnesia by helping to build a record with more context.
3. Set a check-in reminder 3-weeks from now for short-term decisions, or 3-months for long-term decisions, to keep your decision results on track.

The Hard Part

The hard part about correcting our biases is overcoming our blind-spot. After working with hundreds of companies and thousands of decision-makers, one fact stands out: this is never easy to do because, in the moment, we literally can’t see the need.

After following these steps hundreds of times myself, it is still not a habit. It requires a conscious effort every time.

But knowing that defeating our biases will never be easy gives us more room to celebrate small wins. Spend a minute writing down more alternatives. Reach out to get more stakeholders involved. Put in the time to send out a quick written announcement of a decision. Small wins can have a significant impact. When it comes to decision biases, we don’t have to solve all the problems at once; we just have to get started.

What do you do to address biases in your decision making? You can reach me on Twitter @erikdlarson.