Here’s Why Bernie Sanders’s Campaign Looks Hopeless

Topline: Bernie Sanders is trailing Joe Biden by an almost insurmountable lead in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and one big reason why may be eroding support from his most avid bloc of voters—those who back singer-payer health care. 

• Joe Biden cruised to victory in Illinois, Florida, and Arizona on Tuesday. 
• Polls showed Sanders was expected to face an uphill battle as he had lost all three states in 2016 and has struggled to build on his coalition this time around. 
• But an even worse sign for Sanders on Tuesday was that he was polling behind Biden in Florida and Illinois among voters who support his bread and butter policy idea, government-run health care (Sanders calls it “Medicare for All”), according to exit polls conducted by The Associated Press/NORC. 
• In Arizona, Sanders barely edged out Biden among these voters. 
• Last week, Sanders won voters who back government-run health care by 26 points over Biden in Washington, 23 points in Michigan, and 11 points in Missouri.
• One reason why Sanders may be losing this crucial base of support is voters’ preoccupation with “electability”; voters in Florida, Illinois and Arizona who felt that Biden was the best choice to defeat Trump flocked to the former vice president in large numbers on Tuesday, according to exit polls.

What to watch for: Will Sanders drop out soon? The Vermont senator stands little chance of catching Biden but for now he’s staying in the race. On Wednesday, Sanders said he’s “assessing” the state of his campaign but gave no timeline about when he will make his decision. Politico reports that Sanders is planning to stay in the race until at least April 28, when states like New York are scheduled to vote. 

Key background: Sanders may stay in as long as possible because he wants to keep his ideas — such as Medicare for All — relevant, according to Politico. But there are signs his campaign could be starting to slowdown, with Axios reporting that Sanders team has stopped ad spending on Facebook. 

Crucial Quote: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told the New York Times that progressives like her need to learn “political lessons” from 2020. “There’s so much emphasis on making outreach as conflict-based as possible,” Ocasio-Cortez said. That tactic may not work when it comes to winning over suburban women and older black voters.

Tangent: On Tuesday, Sanders called for a $2,000 monthly payment to every U.S. household for the duration of the coronavirus crisis. 

Further Reading: New York Times’ reporter Astead Herndon analyzes why progressive ideas are popular but progressive candidates keep struggling.