It’s Time For Michael Porter Jr., The Nuggets’ Third Cornerstone, To Become A Permanent Starter

If Michael Porter Jr.’s performance in the Denver Nuggets’ post-hiatus games is any indication, he looks to be squarely back on the path to NBA stardom after a years-long detour.

In Denver’s first official return game at the NBA’s protective bubble at Disney World in Orlando, Florida, Porter got his second career start due to regular starters Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton III all being out with injuries.

But Porter struggled in the contest, managing only 11 points on a well below league average .455 effective field goal percentage (eFG%, which accounts for the added value of three-point shots), to go with just a single rebound and a minus-15 plus-minus in the Nuggets’ blowout loss to the Miami Heat.

It was the lone rebound which head coach Michael Malone said was his “biggest disappointment.”

“He had one rebound in that game,” Malone reflected in a media availability two days later. “We’ve all grown accustomed to see Michael rebounding at an elite level.”

But in an anecdote Malone then related which demonstrated both signs of growing maturity and a drive to improve by Denver’s young rookie, it was Porter himself who reached out to his coach to express his desire to redeem his subpar performance.

“In between games I got three texts from Michael…saying, ‘I have to be better, I can do better, stay with me,’ all those things,” Malone explained. “I said, ‘Michael, I’m not going anywhere. I’m gonna stay with you. You’re a hell of a young player and you’re gonna continue to grow.’”

“I just told him that I could bring a lot more,” Porter said of the texts he sent Malone. “I didn’t bring the energy, I didn’t bring the effort and enthusiasm last game, and that can never be the case.”

“I just told him that I know that, and especially with Jamal and Gary and Will out, I gotta be a guy that steps up and kind of takes on a role,” Porter added.

“So I told him I understand that, and it would not happen again.”

And happen again it has not.

Following through on the challenge he’d set for himself, Porter erupted in the Nuggets’ next game with the force of a volcano releasing the pressure it had built up up for ages.

Starting again against the Oklahoma City Thunder in a game which had important playoff seeding consequences, Porter blew up for a new career high of 37 points on a blistering .875 eFG%, hitting four of six threes and, alongside Nuggets All-Star Nikola Jokic, who had a 30-point, 12-rebound and 10-assist triple-double, helping lead his team to victory.

It was a moment which seems to symbolically crystallize Michael Porter Jr.’s arrival as a bona fide NBA star, a milestone which was years in the making, but far from unexpected among those who have long believed in his lofty upside.

A Path To Stardom, Derailed And Back On Track

In March, 2017, Porter committed to the University of Missouri as he prepared to make the leap in his basketball career from high school to college. At that time, the athletic, six-foot-ten prodigy seemed to have a sure-shot destiny as a top-three pick in the 2018 NBA draft, if not number one outright. After all, his resume, accomplishments and accolades were off the charts:

  • Five-star prospect and the No. 1 overall basketball recruit in America (or No. 2, depending on the publications, some of which had Marvin Bagley III in the top slot).
  • The Most Valuable Player of the 2017 McDonald’s All-American Game
  • USA Today’s All-USA Boys Basketball Player of the Year.
  • “A guy that has elite size, athletic ability, shooting ability… the total package.”
  • “A combination of – when they were at the high school stage – Kevin Durant and Kevin Garnett.”

Michael Porter Jr. had appeared to be locked in on the fast track to joining the ranks of the NBA’s elite stars until a season-ending disc herniation back surgery – one that would result in further complications and another major surgery down the line – derailed those high hopes, effectively leaving him sidelined for the entirety of his one year at Mizzou.

The following year, Porter’s injury history – anong with questions about his attitude – led to a drop in his draft stock which saw his actual selection plummet from those early top-three projections to nearly falling out of the lottery.

But what at first may have seemed like a disappointing fall to the 14th pick, where Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly and his front office staff had both the good fortune of having Porter on the board and the wherewithal to select him where other teams (many surely now kicking themselves) had passed him by, now appears to ultimately be a mutually beneficial stroke of serendipity.

A New, Cautious Start

Red-shirted after being brought into the fold of a very deep team which would not immediately require Porter’s services, he was able to spend the entirety of what would have been his rookie year rehabilitating, working on his strength and conditioning, and being inculcated with the Nuggets’ selfless team culture and a system heavy on ball sharing, with Jokic as its fulcrum.

When Porter at last officially began his rookie season last October, Malone and the Nuggets coaching staff brought him into the fold slowly and carefully, due both to exercising great caution regarding his health and recovery, and the lack of available rotation minutes given Denver’s deep depth chart. (By early December I was calling for more minutes for Porter, who had nearly as many DNPs (nine) as games played (12) by that point.)

As injuries started piling up for the Nuggets, Porter got his first opportunity to play a more expansive role for the team, and he wasted little time in making the most of it (my January 7 film study for Forbes on his blossoming offensive game features extensive video and breakdowns on his midseason performance).

Porter’s season peaked – or so it seemed at the time – in the month of January, when he had 12.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game in 21.4 minutes with an eFG% of .612 and a plus-10.6 net rating, per NBA.com.

As injured starters began returning to action with Porter concurrently struggling on defense, however, both his playing time (12.3 minutes per game) and performance (a drop in three-point percentage from .480 in January to .333 in February) dropped considerably.

And while there was an argument to be made (as I did in late February) to continue giving Porter more minutes, Malone and the Nuggets prioritized getting the established, more experienced starters and rotation players back on the same page together in preparation for the then-looming postseason.

There may have been a valid chicken-or-egg question regarding whether Porter simply hit a rookie wall or his reduced role negatively impacted his performance (which in fairness to Malone, was veritably poor on the defensive end well before his minutes started getting scaled back). But wherever the truth to that query may lie, it was essentially rendered moot by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and the suspension of the NBA season.

Silver Linings Playbook

While the slew of injuries to Nuggets starters and the delayed, staggered arrival of the team’s many players who contracted COVID-19 have been the bane of Michael Malone’s existence through Denver’s time in the bubble, the suddenly-emerged manifestation of Michael Porter Jr.’s superstar upside, and along with it his likely ascension to joining Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in being the third prong of the Nuggets franchise cornerstone triumvirate, is an undeniably bright, shining silver lining for the organization.

             

Following his 37-point, 12-rebound outburst, Porter put up 30 points and a career-high 15 rebounds, and then 27 points and 12 boards in Denver’s two subsequent games. In the four Nuggets games since the NBA’s return, he is now averaging 26.3 points on a highly efficient .695 eFG% along with 3.8 made three-pointers, 10 rebounds, a block and 0.8 steals.

As Larry David would say, “that’s pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.”

Consider Porter’s shot chart from these four games:

Not only is Porter shooting an incredibly efficient .500 (15 of 30) from beyond the three-point arc, he’s made 18 of 23 shots around the rim inside the restricted area for an impressive .783 FG%. Additionally, the “DST” indicated by blue arrows on the chart represents shot distribution, where Porter is taking about 40% of his attempts at the basket (the most efficient shot location), about 46% on three-pointers (broadly speaking, the second-most efficient shot area) and just 17% from the less efficient midrange zones between the restricted area and the three-point arc.

This combination of super-efficient shot selection with great shooting percentages reflects the overall potency of Porter’s offensive game, which is not limited to just his last four outings. On the entire season, per Cleaning the Glass, Porter is in the 92nd percentile for his position (forward) in eFG% at .596, the 94th percentile in three-point percentage (.450) and the 77th percentile in two-point percentage (.549). In addition, he’s in the 93rd percentile in block percentage (1.5%), the 97th percentile in field goal offensive rebounding percentage (7.7%) and the 100th percentile in field goal defensive rebounding (21.1%), where he tops the list of all forwards in the league.

Those are elite numbers across the board, and what is perhaps most encouraging about his recent run of games is that he’s outperforming nearly everything he did earlier this season in terms of efficiency, while at the same time taking on a larger role and playing against starting-level competition – the latter two factors usually having a negative impact on efficiency.

“A Big Target” For Jokic

On top of this, Porter has become a favorite teammate for Nikola Jokic to play with. Following Denver’s win over the San Antonio Spurs, Jokic praised Porter’s game, saying, “He’s a big target for me. I really like to play with him. He’s a really good shooter, he’s attacking the glass, he’s a talented player.”

Porter has successfully avoided what could have been a pitfall, in the sense that the ball does not get sticky with him on isolation possessions (a concern coming in, given his dominance in high school), and he has a keen understanding of the positioning and timing of off-ball movement and cuts which perfectly complements Jokic’s playmaking.

“You know he’s gonna make the shot, he’s gonna be there, he’s gonna rebound, he’s gonna cut,” Jokic continued later. “To have a really good player, a really talented player, like they cannot help off him, so you know it’s just helping me.”

At times Jokic can express frustration when teammates fail to be in the right spots or execute in the manner he expects, and keeping the Nuggets’ number one superstar happy is a necessary consideration for roster construction moving forward. The chemistry between Porter and Jokic is quickly flourishing, and Jokic clearly appreciates the rookie’s ability to use his offensive feel and instincts to be in the right place and do the right thing.

Tough Choices Ahead For Malone And The Nuggets Organization

Michael Porter Jr.’s insertion into Denver’s starting lineup may have been born of unfortunate necessity, but as he continues capitalizing on his big opportunity in ways far exceeding expectations, he is constructing a situation in which relegating him back to the bench when and if starters return to good health will be not only controversial among the fan base (spoiler alert: they will not like it), but potentially even detrimental to both the Nuggets’ longer-term future and their prospects for more immediate playoff success as well.

Will Barton III has had a rough go of the last two years, with a hip injury taking him out of much of the 2018-19 season and then, after not being able to fully recover his previous form, with Malone replacing him with Torrey Craig in the starting lineup after three playoff games last year in which he clearly was not fully back to his old self.

After being traded to Denver from the Portland Trail Blazers, who had him buried deep on the bench, Barton worked incredibly hard to eventually earn the starting small forward position. As a seven-year veteran and beloved member of the team, benching Barton in favor of Porter would be a tough pill for he, Malone, and nearly everyone on the Nuggets to swallow.

Much of the same applies to Gary Harris, whose injuries have hampered his performance through much of the last two seasons, but who is also the longest-tenured player on Denver’s roster, and one who has paid his share of dues as he helped the team climb out of the desperate days of the Brian Shaw era into their current winning ways.

Barton and Harris are two of the players most worthy of respect and admiration on Denver’s roster for what they have long brought to the team both on and off the court, and the Nuggets organization has staked a very large claim on building and cultivating a culture of trust and loyalty with its players.

Any moves Malone and his coaching staff, or for that matter the front office, might make which could jeopardize that trust or be perceived as an affront to the players who have fought in the trenches to build the team up could come with a real cost.

But as difficult a decision as it may be for Malone to permanently put Porter into the starting lineup, and as risky in terms of locker room cohesion and players’ acceptance of their circumstances as it may be to vault a rookie who could be construed as not having waited his turn above a seasoned veteran who earned his spot, the potential rewards and benefits have now fairly clearly come to outweigh the risks and costs.

The Time For Michael Porter Jr. To Become A Permanent Starter Is Now

It may be the case that this potential dilemma gets cleared up before becoming problematic at all by the simple circumstance of one or more starters not being able to return from injury before the postseason begins. In such a case, Porter would continue to start, and any potential controversy would be comfortably averted.

But even if all players are fully healthy in time for the playoffs, it is time that Porter stepped up into a permanent starting role.

This is not to say that there are no valid arguments for continuing to bring him off the bench. Some of these include, but are not necessarily limited to:

  • The potential mentioned above for disrupting team morale and cohesion by offending, insulting, angering, hurting the feelings or egos of, or otherwise putting off veteran players by giving one of their jobs to a rookie who hasn’t yet fully paid his dues could be detrimental.
  • Undermining the on-court chemistry of the starting lineup by shaking it up could potentially create unintended consequences. How, for instance, might Porter’s presence affect the now well-oiled machine of the Jokic-Murray two-man game?
  • “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” – With 735 minutes, the Nuggets’ regular starting five has played together more than all other five-man lineups in the league this season, and has a very solid net rating of plus 7.7, per NBA.com.
  • Replacing Harris or Barton with Porter could erode Denver’s defensive fortitude and stability, a concern backed up by metrics such as Jacob Goldstein’s Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM), which has Porter as by far the worst of the three in defensive PIPM (-1.01) compared with Barton (+0.73) and Harris (+0.42).
  • Unlike Porter, Harris and Barton have already been tested in the high-pressure playoff environment, and putting Porter in that situation could perhaps not only cause his performance to suffer, but also unfairly put him in a situation where he might be set up to fail – which in turn could negatively impact his development.

While each of these contentions could be met with point-by-point retorts – for example, that neither Harris or Barton have proven altogether consistent or reliable this season; that Porter’s defense has been improving and in any case his length, athleticism and shot-blocking make up for some of his defensive deficiencies; that despite being a relatively inexperienced rookie, Porter is clearly unafraid of the big stage and, if anything, has proven with his last three games that he thrives on it – the arguments for keeping Porter on the bench are in fact better met with questions from a different angle using a wider-view lens.

Namely: Does Denver, with its starting lineup and rotation as currently constructed, actually have a reasonably legitimate shot at winning the NBA title in the upcoming playoffs?

And: Is either Gary Harris or Will Barton III more important to the future of this Nuggets team than Michael Porter Jr.? Which is to ask, specifically, does either plausibly have more potential than MPJ to become the third cornerstone of a Nuggets “Big Three”?

If the answer to all of the questions above is “No,” then the significance of any of the counterpoints to Porter starting listed above is diminished considerably, and pales in comparison with the importance of facilitating the start of Denver’s process of integrating the play of their three foundational players in Jokic, Murray and, now, Porter.

There of course are also positive cases to be made for Porter becoming a permanent starter. In addition to some which already have been raised above, one particularly stands out amidst the unique playoff circumstance of the bubble and all its quirks and unpredictabilities, and that is the potential ceiling-raising effect of the high variance introducing Porter into the mix could produce.

To be sure, Porter’s defense may present a liability that could expose the Nuggets, but if he’s firing on all cylinders in the playoffs as he has in his last three games, then neither Barton or Harris can match the explosive offensive upside he brings to the court.

And in the bubble, where the average team defensive rating has slipped from 109.8 prior to the hiatus to 111.5, a more potent offensive arsenal – and especially one which opposing teams have had less opportunity to scout and adjust for – may well be a greater asset in winning a playoff series, especially in the case Denver were underdogs, than a sturdier defense.

But at the end of the day, the most compelling reason for making Michael Porter Jr. a permanent fixture of the Nuggets’ starting five is the potential opportunity cost of not doing so.

Porter has already gone a very long way toward showing, in these few recent games, that alongside Jokic and Murray he is central to the future of the Nuggets franchise.

But what if it’s even better than that?

What if those comparisons he got as a high school prospect to Kevin Durant were not so far off base, and his upside isn’t just All-Star, but All-NBA First Team and future Hall of Famer?

What if he is legitimately on track to becoming the league’s next top-ten or even top-five caliber superstar?

And what if that is happening far faster than anybody saw coming?

As far from guaranteed as any of that is, especially given Porter’s injury history, the Denver Nuggets owe it to themselves to find out the answers to those questions which are potentially the most important ones for the future of the team on the court and the organization as a whole over the next decade.

Following the Spurs game, in response to the developing chemistry between Jokic and Porter it was Malone himself who referred to MPJ as a “cornerstone.”

“Michael Porter’s a huge part of our present and our future, so the sooner those two create the on-court chemistry, the better off we’re going to be, not only in the moment, but looking forward,” Malone replied.

“Those are two cornerstones to our franchise, … and the more they’re out there together, the better off they’re going to be, and we’re going to be.”

Just like the Nuggets as an organization need to know what they have in MPJ, Michael Malone also owes it to himself to open the door to the possibility of facilitating the more rapid growth of the one player in his pocket who could conceivably elevate the Nuggets from a second-tier great team in the West to a legitimate championship contender.

And who knows? The results of starting Porter could fall well short of those dreamy best-case visions. In fact, it’s more likely than not that they would.

But… what if?

If Michael Porter Jr. is that guy, if Michael Porter Jr. is coming through that door, then nothing could be more important to the Nuggets than discovering who he truly is, and giving him wings to fly.

There is no better time than now for the Nuggets, and the world, to find out what heights Michael Porter Jr. is truly capable of.

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