No Lockdown In Japan: Request-Based Emergency Measures Having Limited Effect In Reducing Crowds

The first weekend under the state of emergency in Japan declared last week by prime minister Shinzo Abe has drawn to a close, and government measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus by encouraging people to stay at home and requesting that businesses either limit or temporarily cease operations are, to a certain extent, reducing crowds in public spaces.

Specific types of businesses and facilities have been asked – but not required – by Abe and the governors of prefectures which fall under the state of emergency order to restrict business hours, temporarily shut down or take precautionary actions in preventing the infectious spread of the coronavirus.

But with these request-based measures falling well short of the stricter lockdowns seen in other countries, their impact so far in creating sufficient social distancing has clearly been limited, raising questions about their timeliness and effectiveness in containing the spread of the virus and flattening the curve.

Over the two weekends which followed the announcement that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics would be postponed due to the global coronavirus pandemic, a relatively toothless round of stay-at-home requests was issued by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike and several other prefectural governors.

While some stores did close, and some individuals were compliant with government officials’ requests to stay home, many people ventured out to enjoy cherry blossom viewing and patronize the large majority of shops and restaurants which remained open. The photo above shows the food court on April 6 at the Aeon shopping center near where I live in suburban Yokohama. While it would normally be more crowded on a weekday around lunchtime, all the eateries were open and there were still plenty of customers dining as usual.

The same was true the Saturday prior to that at Shin-Sugita Park, also in Yokohama. The playground may not have been quite as teeming with children and their parents compared with a typical weekend afternoon, but a large number of people were ignoring the government’s stay-at-home request and calls for social distancing.

Despite many people not heeding the government’s pleas prior to the state of emergency declaration, those initial stay-at-home requests and other measures were not entirely ineffective. Abe’s order to close all primary and secondary schools from March 3 has had a palpable impact on reducing foot and transportation traffic on the streets, trains and buses in Japan.

These school closures, along with some businesses such as department stores limiting their hours of operation, some companies allowing their employees to telework from home, and some individuals opting dto do so of their own volition, were already decreasing the number of people in transit before the state of emergency.

By April 8, the day the state of emergency went into effect, a Tokyo cabinet official had reported a 30% reduction in Tokyo Metropolitan Subway ridership. And at least 459 Shinkansen bullet trains have been canceled prior to and during the state of emergency period, which extends through May 6 and includes the Japanese Golden Week holiday, which typically is one of the country’s busiest annual tourism seasons (like spring break, but for everybody).

Nevertheless, the limited impact of the government’s first stay-at-home measures was apparent, and after continued resistance to calls by Japanese medical experts to declare a state of emergency, Abe finally succumbed last week as the public’s fear and anxiety over the spread of the coronavirus – and the accompanying political pressure that entailed – grew in proportion with the rising number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Japan, which can be seen in the chart below. (The yellow bar on March 25 marks Koike’s initial stay-at-home request, and the red bar on April 8 indicates the start of Japan’s state of emergency.)

Though the results of the ramped-up state of emergency measures have been more effective than the previous requests, they are still largely voluntary rather than enforced, and fall far short of the types of lockdown measures other countries and cities around the world are employing.

To give a few anecdotal examples from my own excursions in my local area (which I have tried to keep to a minimum), but are, I believe, very consistent with what people are seeing all over Japan:

Even after the state of emergency declaration, most of the retail stores such as Uniqlo at the Aeon shopping center mentioned above (pictured here on April 11, three days after the state of emergency declaration) have remained open.

And while in some cases reasonable rationales could be presented for the “essential” nature of certain businesses, it would seem difficult to do so (especially in the age of online stores such as Rakuten and Amazon) for electronics stores having sales on personal computers:

Or bookstores where more customers appear to be browsing than buying:

In other spaces, especially in the transportation system, signs can more readily be seen of the efforts many people actually are making to stay at home and avoid crowded places. The photo below, also taken on April 11, shows a train car on the Keikyu Line in southern Yokohama which would normally be much more crowded on a Saturday afternoon.

The platform at nearby Kanazawa Bunko Station was also sparsely populated on the same day, whereas it would typically be bustling.

The question of whether Japan’s less-than-robust state of emergency protocols, which can accurately be described as half measures relative to the far more stringent enforced lockdown orders being issued around the world, will successfully contain the spread of the coronavirus or prove to be too little too late has yet to be answered.

But given what health experts have told us about how the coronavirus spreads, it would seem, along the lines of what World Health Organization official Michael Ryan suggested last Saturday, that both stricter governmental measures and a more wholehearted buy-in by the public on social distancing may be necessary to significantly flatten the curve, contain the spread of the virus and ultimately save lives.