‘No Time To Die’ And ‘F9’ Delays Give Universal A Shot At Making Box Office History

No Time to Die, F9, Jurassic World: Dominion and Minions: The Rise of Gru could give Universal four $1 billion blockbusters from four different franchises in four consecutive months.

No Time to Die has been moved from its planned November theatrical release date, opting instead for a global launch on the week of April 2, 2021. Universal and MGM had planned to open the 25th James Bond movie in the UK on November 12 and in North America on November 20, as it was the first major movie to delay its theatrical release in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Initially scheduled for April 10 and then moved first to November 25 and then November 20, it’ll now join (among others) Minions 2, Halloween Kills, Eternals, Top Gun: Maverick, Jungle Cruise, Black Widow and A Quiet Place part II as big 2020 releases opening essentially in 2021 essentially a year after the initial launch date. It also leaves Universal in a position to absolutely dominate next year’s theatrical landscape.

We don’t know if the theatrical marketplace, especially in America, will recover to any consequential extent over the next six months. We don’t know if the major chains and the indie theaters, which began opening back in August in anticipation of Tenet only to be undercut by Tenet’s soft global business and the deluge of tentpoles (Wonder Woman 1984, Candyman, Black Widow and now No Time to Die) that were delayed as a result will be able to weather what looks to be a nearly non-existent 2020 theatrical slate. But presuming that the likes of AMC, Regal and Cinemark, along with the smaller operations, can come out of this more-or-less intact, then Universal, unique among its rivals, will be in a prime position to welcome back moviegoers with open arms with four possible $1 billion grossers in four months.

Simply put, they’ve got No Time to Die on April 2, F9 newly placed over Memorial Day weekend for a May 29 release, Jurassic Park: Dominion still slated for June 11 and Minions: The Rise of Gru which moved from July 1, 2020 to July 2, 2021. Each of these films could, in conventional circumstances, top $1 billion in global grosses. F9 is almost certain to do so if only because its key overseas market, China (where Furious 7 and Fate of the Furious both earned $392 million) has mostly recovered. Could F9 be the first $1 billion grosser to earn less than $200 million domestic? Illumination’s Minions earned $336 million domestic and $1.1 billion in 2015 while Despicable Me 3 topped $1 billion global (the only such movie in summer 2017) while earning “just” $264 million domestic.

Jurassic World grossed $652 million domestic and $1.671 billion in 2015 while Fallen Kingdom grossed $417 million domestic and $1.308 billion worldwide in 2018. With Avatar 2 moved out of 2021, Jurassic World: Dominion, which brings back the new cast (Bryce Dallas-Howard and Chris Pratt) and the old Jurassic Park gang (Sam Neill, Laura Dern and Jeff Goldblum) is a shoo-in for the year’s biggest global grosser, unless Marvel’s Shang-Chi goes all Dead Man’s Chest/Dark Knight in mid-July or Disney and Sony’s Spider-Man 3 plays the spoiler at Christmas. Of the four Universal monsters (pun intended), No Time to Die is the least likely, if only because Spectre earned $200 million domestic and $881 million worldwide in late 2015. That said, A) Spectre was… not good and B) it had to fend off Mockingjay part II and The Force Awakens.

As the final (and much-delayed) Daniel Craig 007 flick, it could easily become the second James Bond movie to breach $1 billion, especially if it’s closer in quality to Skyfall than Spectre. If Universal pulls this off, they would be the first studio to score four $1 billion grosses in four straight months from four different franchises. Disney almost did this in 2016 with Zootopia ($1.02 billion) in March of 2016 followed by The Jungle Book ($966 million) in April, Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War ($1.155 billion) in May and Pixar’s Finding Dory ($1.2 billion) in June. They did nab four straight $1 billion earners last year thanks to Marvel’s Captain Marvel ($1.28 billion) in March of 2019, Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame ($2.8 billion in April), Aladdin ($1.05 billion) in May and Pixar’s Toy Story 4 ($1.07 billion) in June.

If you count Sony’s Spider-Man: Far from Home ($1.031 billion) in July, that’s five for five, but three of those were from the MCU. While I am cautiously optimistic about Disney’s Jungle Cruise (it looks quite fun and like Disney learned the right lessons from Stephen Summers’ Mummy movies) becoming their first new live-action franchise since National Treasure in 2004, Disney is going to be almost entirely dependent on Marvel and their animated output for the next few years. Yes, all three (or four if you count Spider-Man 3) of their MCU movies could be massive blockbusters, but that’s could be the extent of their 2021 market share domination. Next year’s landscape may be closer to 2015, where Disney and Universal beat each other senseless while Warner Bros. mostly sat back and counted its late 2014/early 2015 Hobbit/American Sniper money.

Universal’s four biggies, more so than Disney’s nostalgia-fueled tentpoles, are less reliant on the domestic box office. The only reason No Time to Die didn’t stay in November is because MGM, not Universal, is handling domestic distribution and they couldn’t risk their single golden goose earning less-than-optimal domestic grosses. Spectre earned 77% of its $881 million cume overseas, while Fate of the Furious earned just 18% of its $1.236 billion cume in North America. Ditto Despicable Me 3 ($264 million/$1.034 billion) and Fallen Kingdom (which earned 38% of its $1.308 billion in North America). Yes, Universal would prefer to have optimum domestic earnings, but it’s not like Beauty and the Beast ($504 million domestic and $1.263 billion worldwide) or Toy Story 4 ($434 million/$1.07 billion) whereby Walt Disney
DIS
absolutely needs top-tier domestic grosses to continue to dominate the global marketplace. 

So if America is the only unrecovered territory, Universal can tough it out. No Time to Die only earning $125 million domestic and only $575 million overseas still gets it to $700 million, bigger than any 007 title save for Skyfall and Spectre. F9 earning $100 million domestic but a still absurd $750 million overseas (-25% from Fate of the Furious) still gets the $250 million flick to $850 million worldwide. While Disney’s Marvel movies and WB’s DC Films flicks (especially Wonder Woman 1984) are dependent on domestic grosses, Universal’s big tentpoles can afford to let America recover at its own… unique pace. And the deal with AMC, which will allow them to put new theatrical releases onto PVOD 17 days after theatrical opening if the marketplace justifies as much, means that Universal may “win” either way.