‘Spiral’: Chris Rock’s ‘Saw’ Sequel Should Open On Halloween

This Halloween weekend, where the holiday falls on a Saturday and features a full moon, is an optimum release date for Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson’s Saw sequel.

While the mid-July opening (still unchanged) for Tenet seems aspirational, and at this point the July 24th rescheduling of Mulan and the August 14 reschedule of Wonder Woman 1984 may be overly optimistic, at least they have theatrical release dates. One of the handful of big films still delayed indefinitely, Spiral: From the Book, was supposed to open just under two months ago. But May 15 will come and go sans the Chris Rock-produced/starring (and Samuel L. Jackson co-starring) Saw revival. Presuming that Lionsgate intends to put the film into theaters, and there is little reason to speculate otherwise, the ideal new release date may just be right where it “should” have opened in the first place. No, not October 23 (which is where was initially slotted) but October 30. After all, if it’s Halloween…

I totally understand Lionsgate’s decision to move the Darren Lynn Bousman-directed horror movie from the usual pre-Halloween. Universal went and dated Halloween Kills, the follow-up to Blumhouse’s ridiculously successful Halloween sequel which had earned $159 million (from a $76 million weekend) and $256 million worldwide in October of 2018. Second, Lionsgate had a terrific run for John Wick: Chapter 3 in the prime pre-Memorial Day weekend frame last year, as the Keanu Reeves actioner earned $171 million domestic (from a $56 million debut) and $322 million worldwide partially by being entirely different from the rest of the family-friendly fantasy tentpole flicks. No, Spiral was never going to do Halloween or John Wick 3 grosses (Saw II earned $87 million domestic and Saw III earned $163 million worldwide) but it was still a solid “second choice” release date.

But the coronavirus-related theater closures and resultant delay for the ninth Saw means that summer is out of the question. We’ve already seen two high profile horror movies, A Quiet Place Part II on September 4 and Candyman on September 24, movie to the Fall season. I’ve noted before that, by virtue of their cheapness, theatrical popularity and comparative emphasis on domestic box office, buzzy horror titles may make for ideal “canary in the coal mine” test cases should theaters not really open until Labor Day. As of now, Warner Bros.’ The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It is still slated for September 11 (the same post-Labor Day weekend where they launched It, The Nun and It: Chapter Two) while Halloween Kills is still set for October 16, 2020. What’s one more buzzy horror franchise?

Moving Spiral to October 23 wouldn’t be the best idea, although ironically Saw debuted (with an $18 million frame) against the $22 million second weekend of The Grudge (which opened with $39 million) back in 2004. The weekend after that is oddly appropriate and thus far empty. Yes, I’m arguing that Spiral: From the Book of Saw should open on October 30, 2020, or right before Halloween night. That’s not entirely uncommon. Over the last 20 years, Halloween fell on a Friday or Saturday in 2003, 2008, 2009, 2014 and 2015. This year will see Halloween fall A) on a Saturday on daylight savings eve and B) on the night of a full moon. The latter only happens every 19 years, give or take. Even for a franchise that eschews the supernatural, this seems to be a valuable bit of free marketing.

Here’s the other variable. The last Halloween earned just 2.08x its $76.221 million opening weekend. Even with that bump on day 13 (a $5 million Halloween day gross), the $10 million slasher earned 87% of its money by the end of its second week. And it stands to reason that the sequel, which won’t have as much “folks were curious the first time” moviegoers, could be about as frontloaded. Point being, Halloween Kills could open huge and still be mostly done by the time Spiral: From the Book of Saw opens two weeks later. Of course, even if Spiral opens well over the holiday and sinks like a stone in November, well, that’s par for the course for the franchise. Saw IV, V, VI and VI all earned under 2x their respective opening weekends.

Jigsaw earned 2.28 x its $16.6 million debut ($38 million) in 2017, Saw III earned 2.38 x its $33.61 million debut in 2006 and Saw II earned a comparatively leggy 2.7 x its $31.725 million launch in 2005. Considering how continuity-drenched and “for the fans only” the franchise has been since Saw IV (to the detriment of the surprisingly terrific Saw VI back in 2009), it’s an open question as to whether this “legacy sequel” can attract general horror nerds and/or fans of the cast alongside the dedicated Jigsaw fans. We’re not talking about exceptionally expensive pictures, as I’m sure it and Halloween Kills have been budgeted to account for the potential “pessimistic” scenarios. So if Jamie Lee Curtis’ Halloween Kills plays like Halloween and Spiral plays like a Saw sequel, there’s room enough for the both of them.

As silly as it may sound, the idea of a Saw sequel opening on Halloween may represent a kind of nostalgic normalcy as the world (hopefully/ideally) attempts to readjust to a post-coronavirus “new normal.” Yes, in a mad world, a Halloween season ruled by a Halloween sequel and a Saw sequel may represent a comforting familiarity (albeit right before the 2020 presidential election). That may not itself make the difference between a successful relaunch and a second failed (or not popular enough) attempt for the Saw franchise, but in terms of selecting a new release date for Spiral, the best option may be essentially a week later than where it was always supposed to open. So consider this a modest proposal: If it’s Halloween weekend, with a full moon no less, it must be Saw.