States That Will Decide The 2020 Election Are Reliant On An Industry Joe Biden Has Vowed To Eliminate

In the closing moments of the final 2020 presidential debate on October 22, Joe Biden made one of the most newsworthy and perhaps vote-moving statements of the campaign when he announced that his goal is the eventual elimination of the American oil industry. 

“By the way, I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden clarified for the 63 million viewers who tuned in for the debate. When moderator Kristen Welker asked Biden why he would do that, he responded it’s because “the oil industry pollutes, significantly.” 

Some in the media attempted to downplay Biden’s comment, but such dismissals were belied by the numerous Democratic congressional candidates who were quick to distance themselves from Biden’s remarks. Representative Xochitl Torres Small (D), who is running for reelection in New Mexico’s second congressional district, sent out a tweet after the debate to announce that she disagrees with Joe Biden’s position on fossil fuels: 

It’s understandable that Rep. Small would separate herself from Biden’s remarks. The oil and gas industry contributes $12.8 billion annually to the New Mexico economy. More than 90,000 jobs in New Mexico are tied to the oil and gas industry, meaning the industry supports 8.3% of all jobs in New Mexico.

Fossil fuels are also a key contributor to GDP and job creation in other battleground states. A PricewaterhouseCoopers report released in 2017 found the oil and gas industry contributes $1.3 trillion to the U.S economy and supports 10.3 million jobs nationwide. That report was commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute and is based on 2015 data. More than 322,000 of those jobs are located in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, which amounts to 4.3% of the commonwealth’s entire workforce. Oil and gas industry-supported jobs in Pennsylvania generate $22.9 billion in wages and the industry as a whole contributes more than $44 billion to the Keystone State’s GDP. 

In Michigan, more than 159,100 residents hold jobs supported by the oil and gas industry, generating $8.2 billion in labor income. The oil and gas industry, which Biden wants to “transition” away from, contributes $14.5 billion to the Michigan economy. 

Across Lake Michigan in Wisconsin, the oil and gas industry supports more than 98,200 jobs. Oil and gas industry-derived jobs pay nearly $4.8 billion annually in labor income and the industry as a whole adds almost $8.4 billion to the Badger State economy.  

Biden’s comment could also cost him votes in Ohio, where more than 262,800 jobs are tied to the oil and gas industry, which contributes $37.9 billion to the Buckeye State economy and pays out more than $14.7 billion in wages. Georgia is another state upon which the Biden campaign has set their sites. Though it’s not thought of as an “oil state,” fossil fuels play an important role in the Georgia economy. 

More than 142,700 Georgians work in a job that is supported by the oil and gas industry, earning almost $7.5 billion in annual wages. The oil and gas industry contributes nearly $13.7 billion to the Georgia economy. Lawmakers in Atlanta, Columbus, Harrisburg, and other state capitals are facing dire budget situations in 2021. If Biden is victorious in November and Democrats take control of the U.S. Senate, the sorts of taxes and regulations that would be needed to begin Biden’s transition away from fossil fuels would serve to further diminish already strained state budgets, to make no mention of the personal and familial hardship associated with related job losses.

As surprising as Biden’s prescribed fate for oil industry was to President Donald Trump and many debate viewers, the Biden campaign’s written plan backs it up. Joe Biden’s campaign website makes clear his goal is to achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2035. So Biden’s final debate statement about phasing out the oil industry is nothing new from him or his campaign, but it’s the first time Biden has expressed this goal in his own words while 63 million people were listening. 

Perhaps recognizing the political damage it could inflict in key states, Joe Biden has reversed course from his stated position during the primaries, during which he made repeated commitments to ban fracking. Given how much the oil and gas industry contributes to job creation and economic growth nationwide, particularly in key battleground states, it’s not surprising the Biden campaign was quick to try and walk back the former Vice President’s reiterated pledge to eliminate the oil industry.

Voters might take Biden seriously but not literally here, as his campaign and some pundits would like. But if voters take Biden at his word, it could cost Democrats votes where they need them the most.