Super Bowl LV Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks Against The Spread For Buccaneers-Chiefs

The 2021 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Buccaneers is just around the corner, making this the perfect time to get your bets in on the big game. Sportsbooks have been offering odds on the contest since the matchup became official following the conference championships, with early wagers making a big impact on the betting lines. These will continue to be tinkered with up until the game’s kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET on February 7, making it advisable to lock in a preferential number when it appears before it has a chance to change.

The point spread has been shifting a bit since first going on the board with Kansas City laying 3.5 points, most recently moving a half-point in Tampa Bay’s direction at most sportsbooks. The total has also been adjusted slightly since opening at 57.5 points, dropping down a point relatively quickly and now the over-under has been steadily holding at 56.5 points. Those looking to outright pick the Super Bowl LV winner irrespective of the betting line can find moneyline odds of -170 for the Chiefs and +145 for the Bucs, which translates to one needing to risk $1.70 to return $1 on Kansas City or net $1.45 for each $1 staked on a Tampa upset.

There are thousands of other ways to wager on Super Bowl 2021, but most bettors will stick to the standard point spread, total and moneyline options. If you are one of the many bettors wanting to get a piece of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs action but are not sure which side to pick, you’ve come to the right place. Pro handicapper Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com has sent along his predictions for the outcome of Super Bowl LV, including his leans for the outright winner, over-under result and an against the spread pick.  Before getting to the Vegas expert’s Super Bowl picks, take a look at a full viewing guide for the matchup and a betting odds update that includes public betting trends that can help you make an informed decision when placing your wager down.

Super Bowl 2021 Viewing Guide And Odds

When: Sunday, February 7

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Live Stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App

Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (60% of tickets and 66% of handle on Kansas City)

Total: 56.5 points (73% of tickets are on the over, handle is split 50%-50% on the over-under)

Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Buccaneers +145 (62% of tickets on Kansas City, 59% of handle on Tampa Bay)

Super Bowl LV Betting Insights

Super Bowl LV Total

The over-under on Super Bowl LV is set at 56.5 points, dropping down a point from the opening mark after a deluge of sharp action on the under. The public is split on this number, as nearly three-fourths of bettors (73%) have taken the over, but half of the money wagered on the total is supporting the under. This is not an uncommon trend for primetime and postseason NFL games, as casual players generally prefer to root for an exciting, high-scoring game and back it with smaller wagers, while the sharper bettors see an inflated line and take the under, expecting points to come at more of a premium in these big games.

Considering the strength of the offenses involved in the 2021 Super Bowl, it’s hard to fault anyone who believes the total will go over. The Chiefs led the league by a wide margin in total offense during the 2020 NFL season, racking up an eye-popping 415.8 yards per game. The Bucs were also a top unit during the campaign, accumulating a 384.1 YPG figure that ranked as the No. 7 best offense in the NFL. Despite averaging fewer yards per game, Tampa managed to score an impressive 30.8 points per game this season, the third-best mark in the league and slightly ahead of Kansas City’s 29.6 PPG average. Neither side has skipped a beat in the 2021 NFL Playoffs, where the Chiefs have put up 438.5 yards and 30 points across their two games and the Bucs have averaged 391.3 yards and 30.7 points in their three matchups.

Despite the electric offenses set to compete in Super Bowl LV, bettors that want to play the over would be better served waiting for a more desirable number. With sharp money still coming in on the under despite the lowered total, there is a strong chance that the total dips at least another point in the coming days. Getting in on the over with a total set at 55 is a bit more palatable than 56, providing a bit more expected value despite being such a seemingly small difference. ActionNetwork noted that just 1.2% of NFL games over the last five years finished with a total of 56 points, while that number jumps up to 3.2% when looking at contests that finished with a total of 55 points.

If you would prefer to root for a defensive-minded affair in Super Bowl LV, the under was the right play to make as soon as the odds were released on this Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City clash. There is still plenty of value at the current 56.5 points total and if the trends are indicative of how shops will continue moving this line leading up to the Super Bowl start time, you will not want to wait much longer to place an under bet if you haven’t already. There’s a small chance that the line does jump back up to 57 points or more if an unexpected deluge of cash flows into the over and forces shops to adjust, but it appears that ship has sailed and the total will hover around 56.5 points or move slightly lower.

Super Bowl LV Point Spread And Moneyline

The Chiefs opened as a 3.5-point favorite in Super Bowl LV and many shops are still offering these same odds more than a week after the game first went up on the board. The point spread has dipped down to KC -3 at times, but has been getting bet back up to 3.5 by sharps quickly once the line reaches that key number. With nearly 15% of all NFL games in the last 17 seasons finishing with a margin of victory of exactly three points, that half-point can and often does make the difference between a losing and winning bet, or at least a push.

Kansas City was responsible for a massive percentage of public action out of the gate, but Tampa has been on the receiving end of a buyback trend once the spread hit three points at many shops. The Chiefs are still garnering a strong majority of both tickets (60%) and the handle (66%), but Bucs money has been materializing steadily, especially places where the team is getting 3.5 points against the spread. While the public prefers the Chiefs in general, the sharps seem content to take the favorite laying three and the underdog at 3.5. Given the weight that these pro bettors have at books, don’t expect this line to move to KC -2.5 or KC -4 without an unforeseen development.

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady is the key reason Tampa is competing for a Super Bowl this year and is only a slight underdog against the defending champion Chiefs, but the signal-caller’s teams have surprisingly not been profitable to bet on in the big game. In his previous nine Super Bowl appearances with the New England Patriots, Brady has gone just 4-5 ATS. The Pats were favored in all but one of those contests and went 3-5 ATS as chalk, but did notably pull a massive upset in Brady’s first Super Bowl appearance back in 2002. The New England dynasty began when that scrappy Pats squad outright won as 14-point underdogs, giving Brady a 1-0 ATS record as an underdog in championship games. He’s also 3-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or less in the Super Bowl, which isn’t surprising given eight of the nine Super Bowls the QB has participated had a margin of victory of one score or fewer, and four of those were decided by no more than a field goal worth of points. Given the talent level of both teams involved in Super Bowl LV, it is unlikely that this one will be stray far from the three-point spread.

PFF posted the point spreads for each of Brady’s Super Bowl appearances:

Brady can be found in NFL history books for a plethora of reasons, with one of those being the most recent quarterback to lead a team to back-to-back Super Bowls. Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes will try to replicate this feat on Sunday, as this will be the second consecutive Super Bowl trip for the Kansas City, but recent history is not on the club’s side when it comes to defending a title. The last team to successfully repeat as champions were Brady’s 2004-05 Patriots and since then there have been two instances of a team getting back to the Super Bowl following a win and coming up short. The 2014 Seahawks won it all before losing to New England the following year, while the 2018 Pats were not able to claim a Lombardi Trophy against the Philadelphia Eagles after hoisting it a year prior. In total since the merger, 12 teams have gone back to the Super Bowl after winning one the prior season and only seven of those would hang on to the crown for a second consecutive season.

It will be tough for the Chiefs to outright win this matchup, let alone cover the spread based on their performance against the number during the 2020 season. Kansas City was not a profitable team to bet on this year, going a mediocre 7-9 ATS across the regular season and 1-1 in postseason play. Leading up to the 2021 NFL Playoffs, the Chiefs were often favored by large amounts but would narrowly escape with victories on their march to an NFL-best 14-2 SU record. The team particularly struggled to cover in the back half of the campaign, where they won an NFL-record seven straight contests by one score or fewer. Kansas City cashed tickets for bettors just once during that stretch—which began in Week 9 and ended in Week 16—by besting the 2.5-point spread in a three-point “W” over the New Orleans Saints in Week 15. That is just one of two covers the club has to its name since a Week 8 blowout against the New York Jets, the other being a 14-point thrashing of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game last week.

The Bucs have been a much stronger team to wager on this year, going 11-8 ATS across their 19 regular season and playoff matchups. They have covered in four of their last five games leading up to Super Bowl LV, including a pair of outright wins as an underdog in both the Divisional Round and NFC Championship Games. Tampa also has an historic edge against its upcoming opponent, going 5-1 SU and ATS over the last six matchups with Kansas City. These foes most recently met in Week 12 of the 2020 season, which wound up being an exciting preview for this Super Bowl. Although the Chiefs picked up their first outright victory over the Buccaneers since 1993 by a 27-24 margin, they were not able to cover as 3.5-point road chalk. Mahomes was the star of that game for the Chiefs, lighting up the Tampa secondary for 462 yards and three touchdowns on 37-of-49 passing.

The Bucs will need to figure out a way to slow down the reigning Super Bowl MVP if they are going to avenge that defeat, a tall task but one the defense appears much better equipped to accomplish now in comparison to that late-November meeting. Tampa Bay was able to contain likely league-MVP Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship, sacking him five times—tied for the most against him during the 2020 campaign—and secured a rare interception against the Packers signal-caller, one of just six he threw all year. That performance came on the heels of holding Saints QB Drew Brees to a mere 134 yards and one touchdown in the Divisional Round, and although 42-year-old was not sacked once in the matchup, the Bucs defense recorded three interceptions to guide the team to victory. Tampa had the good fortune of facing off against both of those elite quarterbacks during the regular season and will once again have that advantage on its side in Super Bowl LV, making it is a good bet that the club will find a way to force Mahomes into some mistakes on Sunday. If Tampa can snag a pick—the defense was not able to secure any interceptions against Mahomes in Week 12—and rack up some more sacks after bringing down the Chiefs quarterback twice in the last matchup, recovering his lone fumble, it could make all the difference between winning and losing a championship.

Because of these and several other reasons, Jon Price believes the Bucs are a great bet to not only cover the spread as a 3.5-point underdog, but also outright win Super Bowl LV. They have one of the best defenses in the league that has only gotten better during a three-game road romp through the NFC portion of the 2021 NFL Playoff bracket and a high-powered offense led by what most believe is the greatest quarterback of all time. The Chiefs are going to be Tampa’s toughest test yet, but the team knows what it is up against after squaring off just a few short months ago. It is likely to be a close game that comes right down to the wire, and one that may end up being more defensive-oriented than many are predicting, but ultimately the Bucs have what it takes to win in this situation and are the best value bet on the board for both the spread and moneyline.

Super Bowl LV Pro Picks

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +3.5

Total Pick: Under 56.5 Points

Moneyline Pick: Buccaneers ML (+140)