The Cleveland Indians Must Begin To Prepare For Life Without Francisco Lindor

For the Cleveland Indians, the Francisco Lindor ship hasn’t sailed, but it has pulled up anchor.

As expected.

Lindor told the Athletic that he and the Indians have tabled talks on a contract extension, which is great news for the Yankees, the Dodgers, or any other big-market team with deep pockets, and an interest in trading for, or signing as a free agent, a 26-year-old shortstop who might be the best player in the major leagues not named Mike Trout.

For Indians fans, whose hopes were briefly buoyed at the start of spring training when Lindor said he wanted to stay in Cleveland (“This is home. . . I want to bring a championship to the city.”), this is well-tilled, somber soil. Soil that still contains the departing footprints of expensive stars such as Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Michael Brantley, and Corey Kluber, all of whom either left as free agents the Indians could no longer afford, or were traded before they could leave.

Now it’s Lindor’s turn, and he apparently intends to make the most of it. Because his is quite a package, one that could conceivably, on the free agent market, break through the exclusive $400 million barrier, and into the sweet-salaried atmosphere that only Trout himself has experienced.

For any team seeking a generational superstar, a potential future Hall of Famer, who plays a premier position and checks any and all of the tangibles and intangibles boxes you care to name, on and off the field, Lindor is your man.

For the Indians officials, meanwhile, it’s time for them to caucus, and settle on their preferred exit strategy for Lindor’s departure.

There are only three: 1.) Trade him now; 2.) Trade him later; or 3.) Don’t trade him at all.

If there’s a silver lining to this funnel cloud, it’s that Indians’ officials, unfortunately, have lots of experience in dealing with the exodus of stars they developed but can no longer afford.

Here, from the Indians’ point of view, are the plusses and minus of the three potential Lindor Exit Scenarios:

Trade Him Now

The longer the Indians keep Lindor, the less they will get in return when they eventually do trade him. He will never be a more valuable trade chip than he is right now. That should result in an elite package of talent coming back to Cleveland.

It seems reasonable to assume the Indians’ asking price would start with a top young hitter (with multiple years of team control), preferably a plug-and-play outfielder, who is either already a star, or a budding star in the big leagues. A top young major league-ready pitching prospect. An above average shortstop to replace Lindor, and a fourth, quality position-player prospect, Double-A or higher.

Trade Him Later

The Indians are in a unique position in that Lindor isn’t the only superstar on a going-nowhere ballclub, looking to acquire a bunch of young kids to begin a rebuild by trading that star. The Indians are built to win now, and their chances of doing so are obviously much better with Lindor than without him.

But that approach must be balanced against the knowledge that, one way or another, Lindor is leaving, either this year or next year. Because of that, the Indians presumably would be open to trading Lindor before the trade deadline this year, should they, for whatever reason, fall out of the race in the AL Central, a division in which the Twins and White Sox, the teams that finished ahead of and behind the Indians last year, both increased their payrolls, while the Indians again reduced theirs.

The more teams that are in the hunt this year, the more leverage the Indians would have in any potential mid-season Lindor trade talks. Those teams might be desperate enough to offer the Indians an extra-lucrative package of players in exchange for a year and a half of Lindor.

Don’t Trade Him At All

This is the approach the Indians took with Brantley, again, partly because they were a contending team, one that was obviously a better team with Brantley than without him, even if it meant getting nothing in return when he left as a free agent after the season.

With Lindor, the Indians could follow that same path, for the same reason. As long as they stay in contention this year and next, why would they want to trade their best player? Why not keep him, try to win it all with him, then deal later with the repercussions from that decision.

Following the season, there’s always the qualifying offer option, where the Indians could offer Lindor that, hoping to get one more year out of him. But it seems doubtful that they would do that – they didn’t with Brantley – and even more doubtful that Lindor would even accept it.

However The Lindor Affair plays out, the question is no longer if he’s leaving Cleveland, only when and how.