The White Sox’ Alex Colome Is MLB’s Most Overrated Closer

Closers have been the topic in this space over the last couple of weeks. Last time, the focus was on Edwin Diaz, whom the advanced metrics say remains an elite closer despite poor traditional numbers. Let’s flip the script this time, and discuss a pitcher who was way worse than his old-school stat line in 2019 – the White Sox’ Alex Colome.

Colome was part of a young, exciting though ultimately non-contending South Side crew that has high hopes entering the uncertainty of the 2020 season. Their young nucleus featured some 2019 breakthroughs that were on both solid (Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez) and shaky (Colome, Tim Anderson) ground. Anderson’s over-the-top good fortune on balls in play is a topic for another day.

A pitcher has three basic jobs – to miss bats, minimize walks, and manage contact. In descending order of importance, I’d put them in a slightly different sequence – miss bats, manage contact and minimize walks.

How does Colome measure up compared to the MLB closer fraternity in those three disciplines? His 22.1% K rate ranked 29th of the 30 closers measured here and here, better than only the Cubs’ Steve Cishek. Most closers posted K rates way over the average ERA-qualifying starting pitcher – Colome is in the league average range compared to that group.

Colome’s 9.2% walk rate was over a half standard deviation higher than league average, taking all pitchers into account. You can be a great closer with such a walk rate; Jose LeClerc and Brandon Workman, to name two, both posted walk rates over two full standard deviations worse than league average last season, and had great years. Still, Colome’s mark was only 21st best among the 30 closers measured. Not good enough, especially when it’s your best trait.

Then there’s the contact management. On actual results alone, it seems like Colome did a quality job in this department in 2019. Hitters batted only .247 AVG-.453 SLG on balls in play, for an exceptional 57 Unadjusted Contact Score. That’s 43% better than league average, and 2nd among all closers to Workman’s 32.

This is where the concept of Adjusted Contact Score comes in. Based on the exit speed and launch angle of every batted ball allowed by Colome, what production level “should” he have allowed?

Turns out Colome was exceedingly fortunate on all batted ball types last season.

-FLY BALLS – .296 AVG-.815 SLG (69 Unadj.) vs. .396 AVG-1.172 SLG (136 Adj.)

-LINE DRIVES: .455 AVG-.667 SLG (53 Unadj.) vs. .670 AVG-.886 SLG (106 Adj.)

-GROUND BALLS: .151 AVG-.151 SLG (57 Unadj.) vs. .218 AVG-.240 SLG (101 Adj.)

-ALL BIP: .247 AVG-.453 SLG (57 Unadj.) vs. .350 AVG-.648 SLG (116 Adj.)

Without adjustment for context, Colome allowed the least damage among MLB closers on liners, the 2nd least (to Workman’s 27) on grounders, and as previously noted, the 2nd least overall.

Once you adjust for exit speed/launch angle, Colome’s Adjusted Contact Score ranked 3rd worst among the closers measured, better than only the Beltway duo of Sean Doolittle (117) and Givens (127). 17 of the 54 fly balls allowed by Colome, or 31.5%, were hit at 100 MPH or higher; only the Orioles’ Mychal Givens, at 32.7%, ranked anywhere near that level.

So what you might be thinking right now is this……aren’t sample sizes so small for closers that it’s tough to make sweeping judgments regarding their contact management capabilities? Perhaps, to an extent.

To which I respond with the following additional evidence working against Colome.

• He posted an extremely low pop up rate of 0.6%, over two full standard deviations below league average, while allowing a 36.3% fly ball rate, over a half standard deviation higher than league average. Bad combo.
• His liner rate allowed of 17.9% was over a full standard deviation below league average. Such rates don’t correlate well from year to year, so upward regression to the mean can be expected.
• His overall (90.7 MPH), fly ball (92.4 MPH), line drive (96.1 MPH) and ground ball (87.4 MPH) average batted ball velocities allowed were all over a full standard deviation worse than league average. These marks ranked 30th, 28th, 30th and 24th among the 30 closers measured.

So there’s not a lot to like here. Put it all together, and Colome posted a “Tru” ERA of 5.24 (114 relative to the league), much worse than his 2.80 traditional ERA (62), and 4.08 FIP (88). That ranks 30th and dead last among the closers measured.

Colome is a tough kid who will fight with every weapon he’s got to get the last outs of ball games, but he falls far short of the elite closer level.