UFC 249: Greg Hardy Vs. Yorgan De Castro Odds, Preview, And Prediction

The UFC returns on May 9 from a crowd-less VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The card is stacked from top to bottom with recognizable names and interesting fights.

Specifically, let’s talk about the first of two potentially epic heavyweight bouts on the main card. Controversial former NFL star turned UFC heavyweight contender, Greg Hardy faces one of his toughest tasks as a professional mixed martial artist.

Hardy will face Yorgan De Castro, a powerful heavyweight from Cape Verde, and many are expecting slugfest.

The Buzz

While there is a good amount of conversation centered around the war that might be waged in the Octagon between the two heavyweights, there is more talk around the fight’s questionable placement on the main card.

Some are arguing fights like Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson and Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis are far more worthy of the choice spot. Instead, those fights are a part of the mid-level prelims lineup.

Hardy’s history of domestic violence accusations have made him a lightning rod for controversy in the UFC.

He’s regularly serenaded with boos from fans, yet because of his extraordinary blend of speed and power, he looks like a potential title contender in the heavyweight division.

Still, he’s only 5-2 while De Castro is 6-0. It’s a logical fight, but those who protest it is not worthy of a main-card spot have a point. Normally, you wouldn’t see two fighters with Hardy and De Castro’s limited experience land on the pay-per-view portion of the card.

However, Hardy’s polarizing presence is what makes this more of a draw, and that likely has everything do with the fight landing on the main card.

Odds

Hardy is a fairly clear favorite ahead of this fight, but it’s one that should be of interest to bettors. Hardy is still largely unproven and coming off a one-sided loss to Alexander Volkov in his last fight.

Hardy took the bout on short notice, but was noticeably outclassed. De Castro doesn’t have Volkov’s length or experience, but he does pack the sort of one-punch KO power that can turn a man’s lights out with a single shot.

Hardy’s advantages come in height and reach.

At 6’5”, Hardy stands four inches taller than De Castro, and his 80” reach is six inches longer than his opponent. That could be a significant factor in a fight that could come down to which man makes solid contact with a power shot.

In addition to De Castro’s power punches, he’s also proven to attack his opponent’s base effectively. He goes after the legs and has even secured a stoppage victory during a Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series with this approach against Alton Meeks:

As of now, Hardy has displayed little more than brute strength and athleticism. There is a notion that he could be set to show some growth since being dismantled by Volkov.

However, Because of his greenness and De Castro’s more layered game, there is some real line value with the underdog. One thing to consider with this fight is how Hardy will respond fighting in an arena with no crowd.

He’s done it before on DWTNCS, but this is a little different. The stakes are high, the fight is on a pay-per-view main card, and his opponent is more dangerous.

In the past, Hardy has seemingly drawn energy from a legion of haters. That won’t be present on Saturday, and it’ll be interesting to see if this different dynamic has an impact on him–positively or negatively.

Prediction

I like De Castro for the upset here.

Don’t be surprised if this is a fight that goes the distance. I know both men have massive power, and that usually has people expecting to yell timber the moment one of the heavyweights land a crushing blow.

However, when two dangerous guys like this lock horns, it can also create a timidity that leads to a three-round decision. In either case, De Castro’s diversified striking–especially the leg kicks–should put him in a good position to score enough to win over the judges, or to even win by KO.

Officially, I’m going with De Castro by unanimous decision.