UFC 249: Tony Ferguson Vs. Justin Gaethje Odds, Preview, And Prediction

The UFC 249 main event is a strange matchup set to headline an odd card.

Tony Ferguson was originally supposed to face rival and UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov back in April, but the pandemic threw that out of whack. With Nurmagomedov unable to travel, Justin Gaethje stepped up to face Ferguson for the interim title.

This will be the second time Ferguson has fought for the interim championship of a lightweight division that has been disrupted for years by absences from its top fighters due to injury, suspensions, legal issues and now the coronavirus.

Ferguson and Nurmagomedov have now had their fight scheduled and canceled five times. It has to be one of the strangest situations in combat sports history.

In any case, the Ferguson-Gaethje battle has the potential to be a memorable fight. Here is a closer look at the UFC 249 main event, beginning with the odds.

The Odds

• Tony Ferguson -170 Justin Gaethje +145

Ferguson comes in as the slight favorite and it’s hard to argue with the oddsmakers here.

Ferguson is on a nearly unprecedented win streak and Gaethje is a spectacular, but flawed warrior. Who wins? Let’s get even deeper into the matchup.

Ferguson and Gaethje’s Recent Fights

Ferguson has won 12 consecutive fights and hasn’t lost in eight years. He has battled injuries in a major way and that mostly explains his recent inactivity.

Ferguson has fought just once per year since 2016. He hasn’t been in the Octagon for nearly a year with his last fight being a one-sided beatdown of Donald Cerrone.

That fight was stopped when Cerrone’s right eye was swollen shut and he was deemed unable to continue. Prior to that, Ferguson defeated Anthony Pettis and Kevin Lee.

He’s been chasing a fight with Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor, but he’s been unable to secure the two biggest fishes in the 155-pound pond.

Gaethje has been active.

He’s won three straight fights dating back to 2018. All three of the wins (James Vick, Edson Barboza, and Cerrone) have happened in the first round. He might be as dangerous as he’s ever been right now.

Stats and Styles

While both men stand 5’11,” Ferguson’s arms are abnormally long for someone his height. His 76” reach is six inches longer than Gaethje.

That could be a major factor during stand-up encounters. Both fighters are all action, but Gaethje takes that to another level. One look at his striking numbers is proof of his activity.

Gaethje lands a video-game-like 8.57 strikes per minute, and connects with 55% of what he throws. Ferguson is no plodder himself landing 5.81 per minute and 45% of his strikes.

Striking defense is a foreign term for Gaethje. He eats far too many shots (9.67 per min) and dodges too few (54% striking defense), but this is the way he has found success in his career. His best defense is more offense, and usually, he has outlasted opponents who are able to connect.

Ferguson has been known to take some serious strikes in his career, and like Gaethje, he has shown excellent recovery skills.

However, his 3.75 strikes absorbed per minute and 63% striking defense gives him the edge in avoiding punishment on the feet.

Gaethje is a good wrestler, but you’re almost guaranteed not to see any of it in action. He lives to brawl and that explains why he has never gone for a takedown in the UFC. He has stopped 80% of the shots his opponents have taken to ground him almost insisting every one of his fights be settled with punches, kicks, knees, and elbows.

Ferguson is tricky in the grappling game. He’ll employ rolling techniques and his outstanding cardio has seemingly never failed him. Ferguson has a 75% takedown defense and he lands 45% of the takedowns he attempts.

If he can get this fight to the ground, he’d have an advantage, but that’s much easier said than done against Gaethje.

Prediction

This is a really difficult fight to call. Ferguson is so active and Gaethje is obviously difficult to miss with strikes. The latter will want to brawl, but Ferguson can likely find some success if he can maintain east-west movement and utilize his length advantage. If he can take the fight to the ground, his submission skills likely make him the trickier fighter in those situations.

Ferguson is also the more technical fighter, and he’s better in more areas of the sport. Because of this, I lean toward him finding a way to stop Gaethje in the second or third round, but this really could go either way.

Gaethje’s pressure is a different animal, and it can compensate for what he lacks or doesn’t bother to use in his toolbox. When faced with this pressure, we don’t know how Ferguson will respond.

That said, I’m officially tabbing Ferguson to win by late stoppage.