With Few Advantages, Yankees Can Upset Rays If Gerrit Cole Wins Two Games

The Yankees won’t be taking any more beatings on the Trop turf this year.

Neither will Aaron Judge’s calf.

San Diego isn’t Tampa, where the Bombers have gone just 17-24 over the past five seasons, including 1-3 in 2020. Of course, the Yankees didn’t capitalize on their homefield advantage against the top-seeded Rays either, posting a 1-5 record versus their hated AL East rivals in The Bronx.

So the venue will be quite different, as will the weather — not fall in NYC or a perfect 72 degrees in the dome — when the ALDS opens up on Monday at Petco Park. Yet going into a highly-intriguing series where both teams legitimately despise one another — even with a clean slate and a healthier roster — it’s difficult to find many advantages for the Yankees other than their prodigious power.

“Tampa can’t slug with them,” an executive said.

Tampa’s talented trio at the top of its rotation — Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton — is one of the best in baseball, and gives the Rays an edge. Therefore, the onus will fall on Gerrit Cole to win not just Game 1 but Game 5 as well should the ALDS go that far.

“Cole needs to win two games and then you have to find another one,” a scout said.

Cole was $324 million good against the Indians, striking out 13 over seven innings. But he posted a 4.96 ERA in three starts against the Rays while allowing five homers. (Ji-Man Choi has particularly feasted on Cole, going 8-for-12 with three homers in his career versus the power righty, though the first baseman was banged up at the end of the regular season). Granted, Kyle Higashioka wasn’t behind the plate in any of those games.

Snell (3.38 ERA), Glasnow (3.77) and Morton (2.25 but only four innings) found a lot of success versus the Yankees. Glasnow, in particular, can be a bit Jekyll and Hyde, looking unhittable at times and then being unable to command his pitches/catching too much of the plate with his offerings. The Bombers are an excellent fastball-hitting team — just ask Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco — but their righty power guys are susceptible to chasing breaking balls away.

The Yankees are going to need a better effort from No. 2 Masahiro Tanaka, a perennial postseason standout who lasted just four innings in Game 2 while giving up six runs on six hits. Tanaka favors his off-speed stuff over his fastball, but wasn’t able to locate against the Indians and got burned as a result. Granted, the weather should be a lot better in San Diego. J.A. Happ and Deivi Garcia will be wild-cards on the mound.

The Bombers have the bigger names in the bullpen, but Chad Green, Zack Britton and Jonathan Loaisiga all faltered in high-leverage situations in Game 2. Green, Loaisiga and Aroldis Chapman all allowed inherited runners to score. They miss Tommy Kahnle and don’t appear to trust Adam Ottavino. But with no off-days, it’s all hands on deck. Tampa relievers allowed just one run to Toronto in the wild-card round.

Offensively, these two teams approach the game differently. The Yankees may strike out a bunch but they are capable of working pitchers and hitting homers (seven homers, 22 runs versus Cleveland).

The Rays, meanwhile, aren’t afraid to bunt, hit-and-run and steal. Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe have been forces at the top of the order.

Tampa is also superior defensively, and may have the better manager between the lines in Kevin Cash. Aaron Boone has made questionable in-game moves — specifically with his bullpen — though rivals wonder if Boone is often going off a script from the team’s analytics staff.

Ultimately, given the animosity between the teams — most recently Chapman inexplicably firing a 101-mph fastball near Mike Brosseau’s head which prompted venom from Cash — this is the series everyone wanted.

The talent. The hate. It’s all there.

“We’re clearly the underdog now. They’re the big bad No. 1 seed of the AL,” Boone told reporters in Cleveland with a laugh.

As a scout put it, “Tampa has confidence and they’ve gotten under the Yankees’ skin so much. It’s so contentious. Anything can happen.”