Would 2020 Have Had The Best April Ever? A Box Office Breakdown

In another world, in another timeline, Daniel Craig’s final 007 film No Time to Die would have hit theaters this past weekend after a long wait. And by this time in that alternate universe, several huge movies—including Mulan, A Quiet Place: Part II, The New Mutants and The Lovebirds—would be in the midst of their second or third weeks in theaters.

It should go without saying, then, that April 2020 could have been a month for the record books.

Historically a weak month leading up to the summer season, April has actually been fairly prosperous as of late. After all, two of the highest-grossing domestic earners of all time—Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame—came out during April in 2018 and 2019. And this year seemed like it would have had a similar story with two major releases hitting theaters.

So…what would April 2020 have looked like? Would it have been one of the most lucrative Aprils ever?

Mind you: this is all pure speculation. But when we measure up projections for April 2020 movies with years past, we can gain a better idea what this month would have looked like in a non-coronavirus world.

Which April Was Best?

Purely in terms of total dollars, 2019 had the best April of all time. It should be no surprise, then, that the world’s highest-grossing movie ever came out in April 2019: Avengers: Endgame.

In 2019, the month of April produced $1.035 billion at the domestic box office. That just slightly topped the second-biggest year, 2018, by about $8 million. Those were the only two years, in fact, that managed to top $1 billion within the calendar month.

After that, the top ten is largely dominated by the 21st century, as you can see:

1. 2019 ($1.035 billion)
2. 2018 ($1.027 billion)
3. 2017 ($811.7 million)
4. 2011 ($792.2 million)
5. 2016 ($780.5 million)
6. 2015 ($778.7 million)
7. 2014 ($771.9 million)
8. 2010 ($752 million)
9. 2012 ($721.5 million)
10. 2009 ($695.5 million)

The only real outlier here is 2011, when two major animated projects churned out huge results. Hop pulled in $104.7 million during April 2011 (which comes to $123.7 million after inflation) and Rio made $99.5 million ($117.5 million).

Now here’s how things shift after we account for ticket price inflation:

1. 2019 ($1.076 billion)
2. 2018 ($1.056 billion)
3. 2006 ($977.4 million)
4. 2004 ($975 million)
5. 2011 ($936.1 million)
6. 2010 ($893 million)
7. 1998 ($891.1 million)
8. 2014 ($885.2 million)
9. 2002 ($881 million)
10. 2000 ($881 million)

As you can see, there are some noticeable changes. While Avengers still managed to propel the past two years to the top, the Aprils from 2006, 2004 and 1998 made huge jumps. April 2006 hugely benefitted from Ice Age: Meltdown, which made $223.3 million after inflation; 2004 owned a string of big releases, like Hellboy ($84.7 million after inflation), Kill Bill Vol. 2 ($73 million) and The Passion of the Christ (which released in February, but still managed to make $70.4 million in April); and 1998 sported Lost in Space, City of Angels and the mammoth Titanic in its fourth full month.

Whatever year we choose, there always seems to be a trend: the top three or four earners dictate how well the month will perform. After that, a healthy string of secondary releases ensures the month will be one for the record books.

What Would April 2020 Have Looked Like?

Now that we have context for how April has historically performed, what would that have meant for 2020? Let’s take a quick look at each of the films that were scheduled to release. Then we’ll see how the 2020 movies would have measured up to past Aprils based on past box office data and expert predictions.

Spillover from March releases

As we saw from past years, movies released earlier in the calendar year often spill over into the April month. Both The Passion of the Christ and Titanic—the first released in February 2004 and the second released in December 1997—were the third-highest April earners of 2004 and 1998 respectively. That probably would have been the case for 2020, as two of the biggest earners would have likely came out in March.

A Quiet Place: Part II was scheduled to release on March 20, which meant two weekends would have passed by the time April rolled around. That means Days 11-40 would have contributed to the cumulative April 2020 total.

The first installment of A Quiet Place would go on to earn $88 million after its first two weekends in theaters, with $71 million of that coming during that Days 11-40 period. Assuming Part II would have matched the first film—although that might be a bit conservative based on expert predictions—let’s use that $71 million figure as the predicted amount.

The other big spillover would have been Mulan, a March 27 release that experts predicted would have earned about $85 million on opening weekend. That’s slightly less than Aladdin, so we’ll use that movie as an indicator for Mulan.

Aladdin opened to a $91.5 million weekend last year on a similar day of the month in May 2019. The following month, it would go on to make $177.9 million. That means our prediction is that Mulan would have gone on to make about $165 million in the month of April.

April releases

While there were plenty of exciting movies that would have contributed to a healthy month at the box office—from Fatherhood to The Lovebirds to Antlers to The New Mutants—there are two movies in particular that would have largely dominated.

The first one is obviously No Time to Die, which would have been Daniel Craig’s sendoff as James Bond. The movie would have seen 21 full days in April.

Predictions for No Time to Die ranged wildly from $75 million to $100 million for opening weekend. All indications pointed to No Time to Die performing slightly better than Spectre (which made $70.4 million on opening weekend) but slightly worse than Skyfall (which made $88.4 million on opening weekend).

So if No Time to Die falls between those two movies, then its first three weeks would have produced between $163.2 million (Spectre) and $229 million (Skyfall). For April 2020, we’ll use $195 million as a nice in-between.

The second biggest movie would have likely been Trolls World Tour, which made a surprising move last month by premiering digitally. If the movie had released in 2020, it would have seen two full weeks in April—which could have been huge, considering the first Trolls made $98.7 million during its first two weeks in 2016.

The trend these days is that animated sequels fall sharply from their predecessors, with projects like The Angry Birds Movie 2, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, and Smurfs: The Lost Village serving as indicators. With that in mind, a $70 million prediction for Trolls World Tour over its first two weeks seems safe enough in this case.

The Prediction

Added together, those estimates show that those four movies would have contributed about $501 million to April 2020’s total. That means the rest of the movies that showed during April would have only needed to make $195 million to rank in the top ten before inflation, at least $380 million to rank in the top ten after inflation.

So how do those four postponed/cancelled 2020 movies stack up to past years? First, let’s add up how much money the top four movies of each year on the non-inflated list made:

1. 2019 ($682.4 million)
2. 2018 ($598.8 million)
3. 2017 ($484.3 million)
4. 2011 ($316.8 million)
5. 2016 ($475.9 million)
6. 2015 ($502.5 million)
7. 2014 ($433.8 million)
8. 2010 ($402.6 million)
9. 2012 ($313.2 million)
10. 2009 ($373.5 million)

Obviously, as you can see, not every year benefits from the month’s top four earners. The year 2011 had the fourth-highest-grossing April ever, yet its top four movies pale in comparison to the top four movies of 2016, 2015, 2014, etc. So it really does fall on a month’s secondary releases to make up the difference.

Each of the years that eclipsed or nearly eclipsed $500 million benefitted from a giant release (usually from Disney). Fortunately, 2020 had both Mulan and a James Bond flick backing it up, which would have made it one of four Aprils to ever overtake the $500 million mark with just four movies.

Based on that criteria, it’s safe to say April 2020 would have been in the top five, as the month’s secondary releases seemed strong enough to make up the difference.

Now for the inflated list:

1. 2019 ($709.7 million)
2. 2018 ($622.7 million)
3. 2006 ($561.6 million)
4. 2004 ($294.5 million)
5. 2011 ($374.3 million)
6. 2010 ($478.1 million)
7. 1998 ($361.8 million)
8. 2014 ($497.5 million)
9. 2002 ($349.6 million)
10. 2000 ($309.2 million)

The huge discrepancies in this list highlight the importance of those secondary releases. For instance, the top four movies of 1998 only made $361.8 after inflation, which means the rest of the month’s showings pulled in $529.3 million. If this current month’s postponed releases were able to pull in that much, it would easily make April 2020 one of the most profitable Aprils ever.