The Tactical Advantage The Oakland A’s Gain In A Shortened Season

We’ll get to the Oakland A’s in a moment, but first some necessary business. This article will be based on two assumptions: that baseball will be played in 2020, and it will happen under a truncated schedule – something like 120 games for each team, perhaps a bit less. The first assumption, well, let’s hope that’s true. The second is a near certainty if there is any baseball to play. At the time of writing, Major League Baseball has not announced a shortened season, but unless they plan on playing baseball in December, that is all but inevitable. In the meantime, wash your hands, minimize face touching, and limit close proximity to other people beyond your closest few. Lives are at stake.

Now, to the Oakland A’s. Last season they benefited from the length of the season because it gave them a chance to climb out of an early hole, and also because they had a few stalwarts who provided value throughout the season, namely shortstop Marcus Semien, who played in all 162 games. In a shortened 2020 season, the schedule may favor them in a different way.

Oakland enters the 2020 season with high hopes for two fireballing young pitchers, A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo. Both impressed out of the bullpen on their returns from injury in 2019, and the plan for both is to pitch in the starting rotation. While the A’s have said there won’t be a strict innings limit on either hurler, it’s only logical that there would be a soft limit – one that could be managed through shorter outings, skipped starts or trips to the bullpen. Fangraphs’ depth charts predict 150 innings for Luzardo, 141 for Puk over a 162 game season, and given that they only threw 55 and 36.2 respectively across multiple levels, those figures might be optimistic.

However, let’s imagine life with a 120-game season. That would mean a 200-inning pitcher (there were only fifteen last season) in a normal season would throw 150 innings. On one hand, managers might be more willing to let their pitchers go deep into games, knowing their total count won’t get too high. On the other hand, it’s just as easy to see the opposite approach: their relievers won’t get burned out at the same right, so don’t be shy about calling up the bullpen when it helps you eke out a win.

The point is that Luzardo and Puk might be able to throw something close to a full season if the season itself is limited. That will depend on their performance, of course, but there are reasons to be excited about both. Luzardo struck out 16 and only allowed two runs in his 12 debut innings last season. Puk allowed one more run with two fewer outs, but was similarly hard to handle for hitters. Projection systems have both striking out more than a batter an inning with a high-3s ERA for Luzardo and a low-4s one for Puk. The main difference between them being that Luzardo gives up fewer free passes, which is something of an issue for the lankier Puk.

Both are potential aces, and in a shortened season, the A’s can let both of them pitch every inning the results warrant. In a potentially tight AL West, that could make all the difference.



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