UFC 257: McGregor Vs. Poirier Prediction, Pick And Breakdown

The UFC is on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi for tonight’s UFC 257 pay-per-view card. The main event of the first UFC PPV of 2021 features the return of Conor McGregor. The former two-division UFC champion faces ex-UFC interim lightweight titleholder in the evening’s main event.

McGregor and Poirier have met before. In 2014 McGregor scored a first-round knockout win over Poirier in that contest. Since that fight both men moved up to lightweight and have had success. Poirier is coming off a decision win over Dan Hooker. McGregor enters the octagon off the strength of a first-round knockout win over Donald Cerrone.

I think McGregor has the advantage in the first two rounds. Poirier is going to have to do everything he can to either get the fight to the ground and get top position and just grind it out or stay at a distance. That is difficult because McGregor can close that distance with incredibly fast kicks and and then he can move in with his punches.

The longer the fight goes the more Poirier has a chance to win, especially if he can slow McGregor down. The problem with that is if the fight goes to the scorecards, McGregor’s power could give him an advantage in the scoring.

My pick is McGregor. I don’t know if he knocks out Poirier. I think Poirier has a chance to win this fight via a decision. Poirier is a good striker. He doesn’t have the power McGregor has, but he can knock out people and his submission skills are definitely better than McGregor’s submission defense.

It’s funny, on paper Poirier has all the advantages he needs to win, I just don’t know if he can have everything come together at once and that is what he needs to beat McGregor. That is why I’m picking McGregor to win. I’m going to lean toward a knockout, but I won’t be surprised if it goes the distance. I also won’t be surprised to to see Poirier win tonight’s fight by decision.

This matchup is not like the fights earlier in McGregor’s career when it was clear he was going to win. I think Poirier’s improvements will allow him to drag out this contest, but I’m still siding with McGregor for the win.