Why A Shortened MLB Season Could Lead To A Chaotic Race Between The Mets, Nationals, Phillies And Braves

We don’t know if the 2020 Major League Baseball season will happen at all. That’s the sad reality. But, we can speculate on how a shorter season might lead to some fun races, particularly in the tightly bunched National League. While the American League has at least a few teams with no real hopes of the playoffs, the National League has only one true cellar dweller in each division. The National League East in particular could have some real fireworks. The Atlanta Braves, the 2019 division winner, and the Washington Nationals, the World Series winner, will be gunning for the N.L. East’s top spot, but the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies added to their rosters in the hopes of challenging those two.

That’s already a recipe for a crowded race, but throw in the dynamics of a shortened season, and things could really get interesting. Why? Cut the season in half and those random bounces that determine a game count for twice as much. Early in the year, last season, the Phillies were off to a torrid start with the Mets close behind. Eventually the division flipped (other than the Marlins who hit their very low cruising altitude early on). In a shortened season, there is less time for things to even out, and those hot starts have huge consequences.

As things stand, after the announcement that Noah Syndergaard will miss the season after Tommy John surgery, the Nats and Braves are projected by Fangraphs to each win 91 games over an imaginary 162 game season, with the Mets still nipping at their heels with 89 wins. The Phillies lurk at a projected 84 wins. Cut each of those in half and the differences get cut in half as well: 45.5 wins for the top two, 44.5 for the Mets, 42 for the Phillies. The division could be decided by whether an Edwin Diaz slider to Bryce Harper dives below the strike zone or hangs up for him to hit. It could be decided by whether Yan Gomes throws at Ronald Acuna Jr. trying to steal or he gets under the tag, before Ozzie Albies singles him home.

The beauty of baseball is that it is constant, steady, always there, always on, but nothing is like that these days, except for the virus. Should we get a season, certainly shortened, possibly without live fans, it could be delightfully cacophonous, with nearly every team a four-game sweep away from a playoff spot or close contention. There would be little time for teams to get truly buried or comfortable in the standings. It would be a faster, louder season with more momentum changes than a tight basketball game.

It wouldn’t be normal, but what is these days. A raucous baseball season could be just what we need. Hopefully that’s a little extra motivation for you to do your part to get us there: wash your hands, don’t touch your face and avoid everyone except your quaranteam. If we can be all in this together, we can get back to having division rivals.