Trump Is Behind In Two States That Will Decide The 2020 Election

If Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, and carries the states that Clinton won in 2016, he would be only 2 electoral votes (only one more state) away from victory in 2020.

In two new Fox News polls, Trump trails Biden by 8 points in states that were crucial for Trump’s victory in 2016.

• In Michigan, Biden leads with 49% to Trump’s 41%.
• In Pennsylvania, Biden leads with 50% to Trump’s 42%.

Both polls were conducted April 18-22 with a +/- 3.5% margin of error.

Why This Matters

Michigan and Pennsylvania are two of the three states (with Wisconsin) that gave Trump the electoral college victory in 2016. Trump’s wins in each state were historically slim: about 12,000 votes in Michigan, 68,000 votes in Pennsylvania, and 27,000 votes in Wisconsin).

If Biden can win back Michigan (with 16 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (with 20 electoral votes), he would be extremely close to securing the Presidency. With those two states, and the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Biden would have 268 electoral votes total. He would only need 2 more electoral votes — possible by picking up just one more swing state.

And with recent polling leads in other swing states — such as Arizona (11 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Florida (29 electoral votes), and Ohio (18 electoral votes) — Biden has many ways to potentially win the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House in 2020.

Interesting Caveats

There are a few important notes to these new polls and reasons why Democrats may be wise to temper their optimism.

1.    Biden’s percentage lead still does not exceed the percent of voters who remain uncommitted in either poll.

In the Michigan poll, the Biden vs. Trump results only account for 90% of the vote; 10% is left uncommitted (6% were undecided, 1% said they wouldn’t vote, and 3% selected “other”). While Biden leads by 8%, there is still room for Trump to make up the deficit.

In the Pennsylvania poll, the Biden vs. Trump results account for 92% of the vote; 8% is left uncommitted (4% were undecided, 2% said they wouldn’t vote, and 2% selected “other”). Biden’s 8% lead in Pennsylvania is stronger because it equals the entire portion of uncommitted voters.

2.    Poll of registered voters.

The recent Fox News polls surveyed registered voters, which is a larger sampling than “likely” voters and usually overrates Democratic chances because more registered voters are Democrats. This high proportion of Democrats appears present in the two new Fox News polls as well:

• In the Michigan poll, 44% of respondents identified as Democrats, 41% identified as Republicans, and 16% identified as Independents or other.
• In the Pennsylvania poll, 48% of respondents identified as Democrats, 41% identified as Republicans, and 11% identified as Independents or other.

3.    Effect of popular Michigan Governor as potential Biden VP.

In the Michigan poll, an alternative question was asked where the hypothetical 2020 matchup was Job Biden with Michigan’s Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, as Biden’s running mate. In that matchup, Biden/Whitmer’s numbers did not improve over the Biden vs. Trump matchup alone, but Trump/Pence improved by 2%: Biden/Whitmer stayed at 49% and Trump/Pence improved to 43%.

This result is surprising considering that Gretchen Whitmer is the current Governor of Michigan (a position traditionally assumed to help a Presidential ticket in one’s home state). It is even more difficult to explain because Governor Whitmer also enjoyed a large favorability rating in the same poll, with 57% of those surveyed having a favorable view (and only 37% viewing her unfavorably).

Perhaps Whitmer’s support is already baked-in for Biden (leading to no net improvement). Or, perhaps there are some Michigan voters who are waiting for a VP to be selected before deciding, but who would be more inclined to vote against a ticket with Whitmer included. Of note, Governor Whitmer won the state in 2018 with 50% of the vote, but that still leaves 47% of residents — less than enough to swing an election — who have voted against her once and may be more inclined to do so again if confronted with the choice in 2020.

4.    Biden currently enjoys a high favorability advantage over Trump.

Joe Biden’s polling lead incorporates a heavy lead in his favorability ratings as compared to President Trump.

• In Michigan, 53% view Biden favorably and 43% view him unfavorably — a net positive rating of 10%. President Trump has a net negative favorability rating of 8% in the same poll (44% favorable and 52% unfavorable).
• In Pennsylvania, 52% view Biden favorably and 43% view him unfavorably — a net positive rating of 9%). President Trump has a net negative favorability rating of 9% in the same poll (44% favorable and 53% unfavorable).

Biden’s perceived favorability could certainly change as Trump unleashes more negative advertising and attacks on Biden ahead of the 2020 election. In 2016, when both Presidential candidates were viewed unfavorably overall (about 1 in 5 voters viewed both candidates unfavorably), Trump won nearly two-thirds of that constituency. If Trump’s coming attacks in the general election can tarnish Biden’s favorability, Biden’s lead in these key states may shrink between now and November.